中國燃氣(00384.HK)：良好行業基本面支持企業增長，給予“買入”評級，目標價36.65港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：36.65港元
首次給予“買入”評級，目標價36.65港元，20.4%上升空間
中國天然氣需求在經濟持續增長下不斷上升。作為一家主要全國性天然氣分銷商，中國燃氣是受惠者。在天然氣銷量增長下，我們預計公司2019-2022年財年股東淨利潤複合年增長率為16.6%。按貼現現金流分析，我們對中國燃氣定下36.65港元目標價，這對應17.3倍2021年財年市盈率和20.4%上升空間。我們首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
中國天然氣長遠需求前景亮麗
在經濟持續增長下，中國天然氣需求在過去十年不斷上升。天然氣自給率也由2010年的88.3%下跌至2019年的56.5%。我們相信行業長遠需求前景亮麗，因為(一)中俄東線天然氣管道開通可解決天然氣供不應求的問題；(二)國家石油天然氣管網集團有限公司成立可提高天然氣供應效率。
肺炎爆發對天然氣需求之影響只是短暫性；公司未來天然氣銷量明顯增長，我們認為肺炎爆發對天然氣需求之影響只是短暫性，而不是結構性。在自生增長和管道燃氣項目數目增加下，我們預期公司未來天然氣銷量明顯增長，2019-2022年財年城市與鄉鎮項目天然氣銷量複合年增長率將達到為22.7%。我們相應地預計公司2019-2022年財年股東淨利潤複合年增長率達到16.6%。事實上，高利潤率的燃氣接駁業務才是公司的主要利潤來源。
估值低於同業
中國燃氣的估值低於大市值港股同業。公司2021年財年(年結：3月31日)市盈率為14.4倍，分別低於華潤燃氣(1193HK；未評級)及新奧能源(2688HK；未評級)的2020年(年結：12月31日)市盈率之16.2倍和15.2倍。
風險提示：(一)項目開發延誤；(二)天然氣供應緊張；(三)天然氣接駁費大幅下降或被取消；(四)工商業活動放緩
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
