中國軟件國際(0354.HK)：攜手“鯤鵬“，展翅入“雲“，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價 6.5港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：6.5港元
投資要點
基石業務長期 10%以上穩健增長 公司是華為最大的IT 服務外包供應商，佔華為國內發包份額約 60%。 公司已成為首批華為雲鯤鵬凌雲夥伴，與華為聯合打造鯤鵬生態全棧服 務能力，預計未來佔華為研發支出比例可繼續維持高位，華為業務收入 可保持 10%以上增長；公司重點開拓平安、BAT 和微軟等新客户，業 務收入有望保持30%以上增長。
雲智能業務模式逐漸清晰，業績有望實現 50%增長 公司目前具備全棧式雲服務能力，可提供覆蓋 IaaS、DaaS、 PaaS 和SaaS 層的服務和產品。IDC 預測 2018-2023 年我國雲管理整體市場複合增長 率將達到 70.8%。公司 2018 年佔據國內第三的市場份額，未來有望從 行業高增長和集中度提升兩方面受益。 解放號平台打造 IT 服務生態，其中人力外包的“Z 計劃”能夠滿足政 企長尾需求，有望實現收入 200%以上增長；“雲集”業務有望成為我 國多個地方政府線上招標平台，進而取得長期穩定收益。
首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級,目標價 6.5港元 我們預測19/20/21 年公司實現營業收入分別為116.0/138.0/165.0 億元， 同比增長9.6%/19.0%/19.6% ；淨利潤分別為7.4/9.0/10.9 億元，同比增 長 3.3%/21.8%21.0%。我們認為公司是我國 IT 服務龍頭企業，綜合競 爭實力強。公司基石業務穩健增長，雲智能業務高速增長，總體成長空 間廣闊，增長確定性強，未來處於收入和利潤率水平同時增長的相對高 速發展階段，理應享有 15~20 倍的較高估值。我們保守按 2020 年 16 倍估值計算，公司合理股價為6.5 港元/股，離現價有 20%漲幅空間。
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