摩通:建議追落後內房股 大型房企看好萬科(2202.HK)及碧桂園(2007.HK)
摩根大通發表研究報告,指基於新型冠狀病毒肺炎,內地發展商2月份首兩週的銷售均非常緩慢,30個城市的銷售按年下跌超過90%。據內房企業透露,目前只有約10至20%的售樓處重開,而網上銷售的反映並不是很好。發展商現正等待情況緩和,以便儘快恢復合同銷售。大部份發展商預計這種情況會在未來一至兩週達到高峯,屆時正常的經濟活動,包括房地產銷售均會逐漸恢復,可見他們相信銷售很有可能在未來6至8周內恢復正常。
該行估計2月內房的銷售很疲弱,料按年下跌50%以上,相信銷售會最快在4月份恢復,而發展商仍未計劃下調全年銷售目標。另外,該行預料2月份的合同銷售額將會主要依靠已簽約未入帳銷售轉換,即從2019年底的銷售中獲取收益,因此去年底有較多推盤的發展商,例如萬科企業(2202.HK)
、融創中國(1918.HK)
及碧桂園(2007.HK)
的2月份表現將會跑贏。
在投資策略方面,市場的看法似乎與該行大致相同,即雖然目前存在困境,但需求最終仍會回升,再加上未來數個月或有更多寬鬆政策推出,使投資者更願意以樂觀的角度審視目前的下行趨勢及價格。該行建議可以追落後,看好萬科企業、碧桂園等大型房企;中型企業則看好旭輝控股集團(0884.HK)
、新城發展(1030.HK)
及富力地產(2777.HK)
;小型發展商則看好中駿集團(1966.HK)
、美的置業(3990.HK)
、時代中國(1233.HK)
及中國奧園(3883.HK)
。
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