寶龍地產(1238.HK)：盈利增長超預期，維持“買入”評級，目標價6.3港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：6.3港元
投資要點
盈利增長超預期，維持“買入”評級：公司發佈正面盈利公告，預計2019年公司股東應占利潤同比增長不低於40%，主要由於交付物業增加。公司的盈利增速超我們預期。2020年仍然是寶龍的高速增長年，預計銷售增速仍可保持行業前列；在保證物業銷售規模的同時，投資物業的發展也進入快車道，新商場開業一般在十一及以後，目前看不會受到影響，公司在商業領域的持續投入和深耕得到市場認可。2月份公司與租户共克時艱，對租金有所減免，由此造成的財務損失有限，不影響公司的長期價值。我們維持公司“買入”評級，目標價6.3港元，對應2019/2020年PE為9.2/7.5倍，公司保持穩健派息，派息比率達到35%，當前股息收益率超過6%。
合約銷售繼續保持高增速：公司2019年完成合約銷售金額和麪積分別為604億元和377萬平米，分別同比增長47%和33%，銷售增速行業領先。公司超額完成2019年調高後的銷售目標，顯示超強的增長動力。目前公司儲備的貨值充足，且大部分位於長三角區域，預計2020年銷售規模可達到750億元，同比增長約24%，繼續保持較高的增速。
深耕長三角，土儲充足：公司深耕長三角，2019年上半年新增土儲95%位於長三角，新增土地成本為5130元/平米，溢價率僅為12.7%。截至2019年中期，公司的總土地儲備為2437萬平米，可供公司未來4-5年發展，且平均土地成本為2701元/平米，佔銷售均價比例不到20%，盈利空間有保證。
財務狀況改善，淨負債率下降：2019年公司通過配售以及分拆寶龍商業上市，分別募集7.81億港元和16.4億港元，補充了營運現金，財務狀況得到改善，預計2019年底的淨負債率降至85%左右。公司的融資渠道通暢，2019年11月份發行了3年期3億美元利率為7.125%的美元債。
風險提示：宏觀經濟增長放緩、行業調控政策加嚴、流動性收緊、商品房銷售不及預期、人民幣貶值、租金收入不及預期
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