雅生活服務(3319.HK):積極防疫,温情守護,利潤表受損有限,維持“買入”評級
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
核心觀點:
公司積極投身於防疫戰鬥,從集團到區域公司到股權合作物業品牌
公司到項目層面採取諸多措施温情守護業主。集團第一時間啟動緊急預警預案,及時部署工作並向各層級下發指引和工作安排,併成立物資統籌、技術支持和人力行政三個領導小組,確保和疫情相關所有細節都得到落實。區域公司和股權合作公司亦及時響應,啟動緊急預案,全力維護業主身體健康和社會穩定。項目層面,公司響應政府號召加大宣傳力度做好業主溝通,嚴控人員出入,配合政府登記信息以及增加消殺頻率和部署業主及員工測温等工作。
預計公司2020年利潤表受損有限。公司基礎物管用人增加較少,部分被小區封閉導致用人減少抵消。消殺成本佔比較低,全年影響有限。非業主增值服務受到影響主要在上半年,全年影響有限。增值服務未來有望受益於疫情之間業主對該業務體驗次數增加。
維持2019-2021年業績分別為0.87元/股、1.21元/股和1.52元/股。
我們認為公司2020年全年利潤表受到疫情影響有限,維持盈利預測和評級和合理價值判斷:預計公司2019-2021年EPS分別為0.87、1.21和1.52元每股。我們認為市場對營銷業務和併購業務的折價將會進一步減弱,公司整體的估值水平將會修復到和其增長匹配的水平,維持2020年30倍PE合理估值水平,對應每股合理價值為40.13HKD,維持買入評級。
風險提示:併購業務並表不及預期;未預期的自然或人為災害。

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