中國燃氣(0384.HK)：不同尋常的冬季，維持“買入”評級，目標價37.4港元
機構：招商證券
評級：買入
目標價：37.4港元
■2019年3月-12月銷氣增長約為18%;20財年增長放緩，有部份是受近期新冠肺炎疫情致使工業生產疲弱的影響
■新接駁户數將維持韌性，預計2020年新接駁家庭户數將達530萬户（同比增長4%）
■維持買入評級，小幅下調現金流量貼現法目標價至37.4港元
短期內工商户銷氣量可能會因疫情受到削弱
中國燃氣前9個月（19年3月-12月）的銷氣量增長約18%（不包括聯營合營公司）。在疫情影響方面，因為處於冬季供暖季，且居民待在家中的時間變長，居民户燃氣銷售將保持穩定。另一方面，管理層預計工廠春節假期延長一週約影響2020年城市燃氣銷氣量增長2個百分點（按全年52周計算）。目前，由於疫情還在發展中，仍難以評估生產延期的影響。最後，俄羅斯天然氣從1月份開始向公司東北地區的項目供氣，較之前計劃的12月份出現了稍許延遲，此外，管理層對俄氣向東北地區的供氣量保持保守，預計2020年該地區俄氣供氣量為1億立方米（此前為4億立方米）。
近期疫情過後接駁量將恢復增長
管理層還表示，一旦當地政府批准復工，公司將有足夠的人力來執行相應的接駁工作，因為：1）湖北省的接駁員工人數佔總接駁員工總數的比例不足2%；2）農村接駁方面，公司正在培訓農村地區的當地工人進行接駁工作，因為在當前疫情防控背景下，這些工人無法前往其他城市。我們預計2020財年新接駁家庭户數量為530萬户（19財年510萬户），同比增長+4%。
維持買入評級，小幅下調現金流貼現法目標價至37.4港元
在調整了工商户銷氣量和新接駁户數預測，以及外匯變動後，我們將20/21/22財年核心利潤分別調整-0.9%/-0.7%/-1.1%，並由此將現金流量貼現法目標價從38.3港元下調至37.4港元。我們認為當前的特殊情況終將過去，因此我們建議投資者從長遠角度選擇投資策略。我們維持公司買入評級，其城市燃氣的長期前景保持穩固，而有吸引力的增值服務的收入對盈利的進一步支撐保持不變。
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