美團點評-W(3690.HK)：需求短暫放緩，用户與場景持續滲透，維持“買入”評級
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：125.2港元
投資要點
外賣長期邏輯不變：預計外賣單均盈利空間預計還有1.5+元，廣告變現空間將逐步釋放。我們測算，19年美團單均將實現經營利潤0.1+元，預計隨着客單價的提升+廣告收入增長+行業競爭緩和+用户激勵下滑+配送成本下滑，我們預計外賣單均盈利能力尚存1.5元以上的空間，並且預計外賣單量在2020年將超過110億。
外賣訂單量短期放緩，我們預計1）節後返工需求將逐漸回暖；2）非餐飲外賣上升明顯；3）重型品牌外賣將加強合作。2020年春節假期延長遞延了供需與運力。我們判斷。正月初一至初十的訂單恢復量為20%-30%（去年約40%），但必需品與醫藥等非餐飲外賣明顯上升，用户羣體與覆蓋品類同步擴張。我們認為返工後用户需求逐步恢復，而線下餐飲部分轉至線上，美團“無接觸配送”覆蓋了184個城市以上，提升送餐效率與體驗；此外，品牌餐飲（如海底撈）也會提高與外賣平台合作意願。
到店酒旅短期回落，零售與創新業務加大投入，場景加速滲透。我們認為特殊時期過後，到店商家為搶佔的流量會投入更大的廣告預算進行營銷，預計2H20將有所回温。美團買菜在自營城市加大倉儲密度，北京的日均單量在今年春節期間為節前的2-3倍，未來公司還將繼續提高管理、分銷管理系統及B2B等B端業務的投入以形成閉環。
投資建議：我們看好公司在本地生活服務的龍頭地位，外賣盈利能力將隨着規模效應持續提升，數據變現與服務生態也具有巨大空間。預計公司19Q4收入為265億元(YoY+34%)，19全年收入為959億元(YoY+47%)，另外調整公司20/21年的營收由1,254/1,594億至1283/1650億元，經調整經營利潤為55/131億元。根據SOTP估值上調公司目標價由110.76港元至125.2港元，維持“買入”評級。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
