You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
花旗:料內房股今年盈利續增長 首選融創、世茂房地產及金茂等六股
格隆匯 02-11 15:40

花旗研報指,雖然針對新型冠狀病毒爆發的憂慮拖累內房股表現,但該行相信行業將受惠需求增加,加上一、二線及強三線城市土地供應減少,該行估計銷售放慢等下行因素對行業盈利造成的影響,該行嘗試研究開發商的流動性,以判斷他們在不確定性下的復甦情況以及其現金流管理,更重要的是該行為內房企業2020年的現金流進行了壓力測試,並找出資產負債表較具彈性的長期贏家。

該行的壓力測試顯示,認為大型內房在艱難時期的彈性強過預期,即使採取最保守的估算假設銷售將按年下挫三成、回款僅75%等,到2020年底平均的淨負債比率亦能維持在85%,即使銷售下跌三成旭輝控股集團(00884.HK)、龍光地產(3380.HK) 、世茂房地產(0813.HK)及時代中國控股(1233.HK)仍錄正現金流,反映他們有能力繼續增長,而中國恆大(3333.HK)、碧桂園(2007.HK)及富力地產(2777.HK)由於有較多短債或資本開支的負擔,負現金流規模則偏大,相信他們再融資的能力將更為重要,但估計中央或會推出支持政策以應對流動性問題。

該行指出,估計2020年內房盈利仍有增長,相信內房股過去兩週下跌約15%已反映疫情影響及盈利放慢的情況,考慮到2020年的盈利增長及流動性可控,加上行業料將受惠財政及貨幣政策等,首選融創中國、世茂房地產、中國金茂(0817.HK)、時代中國控股、旭輝、龍湖集團(0960.HK)。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account