旭輝控股集團(0884.HK)2020年1月銷售數據點評：銷售穩增，拿地謹慎，維持“強推”評級
機構：華創證券
評級：強烈推薦
事件：
2月6日，旭輝控股公佈，2020年1月公司實現合同銷售金額98.0億元，同比增長8.8%；實現合同銷售面積62.6萬平方米，同比增長22.9%。合同銷售均價15,600元/平米，同比下降11.5%。
點評：
1月銷售98億、同比+9%，銷售穩增，一二線佈局望銷售穩增
1月，公司銷售金額98.0億元，環比-57.0%、同比+8.8%；銷售面積62.6萬平米，環比-53.3%、同比+22.9%，銷售額同比維持穩增，環比下降源於12月高基數，1月低基數；銷售均價15,600元/平米，環比-8.0%、同比-11.5%。公司2019年全年銷售額達2,006億元，同比+32%，公司銷售目標完成率達105.6%，全年目標超額完成。本次疫情對於一二線城市的影響預計相對較小，購房需求更多是延後，而非消失，考慮到公司深耕供需關係良好的一二線熱點城市，且佈局集中在長三角、中西部、環渤海等城市羣，並且可售貨值充裕，預計2020年銷售仍有望實現穩增。
1月拿地23萬方，拿地權益比100%，拿地/銷售面積比0.37倍
根據公司月度通訊，1月，公司新增2幅地塊，分別位於杭州、洛陽，新增規劃建築面積23.1萬平米，對應總地價13.2億元，平均樓面地價5,719元/平米，拿地權益比達100%，拿地/銷售面積比0.37倍。19年全年公司新增規劃建築面積1,408.3萬平米，同比+13.4%，拿地銷售面積比1.17倍，拿地積極，拿地權益比例70%，同比+16pct，拿地權益比回升明顯；平均樓面地價5,346元/平米，同比-13.6%，拿地均價佔比銷售均價32%，高質量擴充土儲。公司通過公開市場、合作併購、舊改、商業勾地等多元化方式擴充優質土儲，公司土儲較充裕、聚焦於核心二線城市，保障後續穩健發展和結算利潤率。
投資建議：銷售穩增，拿地謹慎，維持“強推”評級旭輝控股起步上海，高品質全國化，2018年深耕一二線，聚焦城市羣，銷售額7年實現28倍高增長，融資成本上市後持續下行，負債率一直安全可控，2012-18年淨負債率維持在50%-75%，利潤率穩定並在近三年逐步提升，實現規模、利潤率、槓桿率三者動態均衡發展。公司佈局聚焦一二線+城市羣，預計銷售和業績有望穩增。我們維持公司2019-21年每股收益分別為0.92、1.15、1.44元，現價對應19/20年PE分別為6.5、5.2倍，維持目標價8.51港元，並維持“強推”評級。
風險提示：房地產調控政策超預期收緊以及行業資金超預期收緊
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