《大行报告》中金:内地物管股受疫情拖累回调 建议逢低吸纳
中金发表报告,指受肺炎疫情影响,股票市场持续受压,物业管理板块亦显着回调。该行认为物业管理公司收入和盈利受疫情负面影响微弱、同时业务可能受益,建议投资者逢低吸纳优质个股,推荐碧桂园服务(06098.HK)、中海物业(02669.HK)、永升生活服务(01995.HK)、雅生活服务(03319.HK),并建议关注该行未覆盖的保利物业(06049.HK)。
该行认为,从收入角度来看,认为物业费收入在经济波动中具有稳定性,不受消费偏好、投资需求、进出口波动等因素影响。在成本方面,认为疫情期间的额外成本相对有限,估计额外成本增加不超过饱和基础物业费收入的5%。同时,考虑到疫情带来的业主出行减少等影响,不排除阶段性衍生特色社区增值服务需求提升的可能性,例如室内消毒、产品与服务上门等。
另外,该行观察到龙头物业公司在疫情中表现出积极的社会责任担当,如及时进行公区消毒、加强访客监管等,认为这有望促进其与业主关系,同时进一步提升其品牌和口碑,从而助力公司长期业务发展。
中金预计板块绝大部分标的2019年业绩将符合或超出市场预期,预计2019年该行推荐标的盈利增速为24%至113%,其中碧桂园服务和雅生活服务有望业绩超预期。另外,考虑到盈利的高速增长,预计部分公司可能提前发布盈利预喜公告,例如碧桂园服务、永升生活服务等,为板块股价提供额外催化剂。
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