中金:新奧能源(2688.HK)派息率或已步入上升週期 維持“跑贏行業”評級
中金髮布研究報告稱,預計新奧能源(02688)2019財年業績穩健,公司進入了派息率的上行週期,同時受益於未來潛在的美國液化天然氣(LNG )進口。中金上調公司2019/20 每股盈利6%/13%至4.79元/5.49元,預測2021年每股盈利6.20元。中金維持“跑贏行業”評級,給予目標價102港元,對應16倍2020年市盈率。
中金稱,在中美第一階段經貿協議中提到在2017 年基數上,擴大自美採購和進口製成品、農產品、能源產品和服務不少於2000億美元,其中新增購買能源產品貨值達524億美元,含液化天然氣(LNG)等。未來兩年將有大批來自美國的LNG貨物銷往中國,將對澳大利亞、卡塔爾、馬來西亞和印尼等國(中國LNG進口的主要資源國)形成競爭。
中金預計現貨市場價格有望維持低位甚至進一步走低,屆時新奧能源有望充分利用其集團公司的舟山LNG碼頭,進口更多相對廉價的現貨。公司從而降低其國內綜合購氣成本,有利於維持甚至擴大銷氣毛差。
中金預期2019年公司居民接駁户數或達240萬户、全年銷氣量有望增長15%、綜合能源業務收入有望達到30-40億元。中金預計2019財年公司核心利潤增長17-18%,落在指引區間的中位,2020財年核心利潤繼續增長15%。增值服務業務或在未來兩年期間,每年收入翻倍,並在2021年底佔到公司毛利的15-20%。
中金稱公司對綜合能源業務佈局擴張的態度已趨於謹慎,資本支出紀律趨嚴,公司現金流有望進一步改善。該行預計19財年派息率較18財年的26%提高到30%,同時20/21財年繼續上升到33%/35%。

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