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美銀證券:港銀估值更見吸引 首選中銀(2388.HK.HK)
格隆匯 01-08 11:47

美銀證券發表研究報告,指香港2019經歷具挑戰性的一年,市場預期去年第四季的GDP增長維持負面,而對於2020年的GDP表現看法則較分歧,範圍介乎收縮4%至正增長1.7%。銀行股受宏觀經濟影響,因而會遭受增長放慢、毛利率疲弱及潛在的信貸風險增加等。然而,香港銀行股的股價在去年下跌7%至30%,表現大幅跑輸大市及內銀股,這或會帶來買入的機會,尤其是當宏觀經濟復甦時。

該行大致維持對港銀的盈利預測不變,並預期2020至2021年的毛利率受壓情況温和,貸款有低至中單位數增長,費用收入增長緩慢,以及信貸成本更高。首選中銀香港(02388.HK),因其估值低加上股息收益率接近6%,並有更多樣化的業務組合。另外亦看好恆生(00011.HK)匯控(00005.HK)仍在2019年被降級,其估值仍不具吸引力,溢價較中銀香港超出80%,接近2011年的歷史高位。

而東亞銀行(00023.HK)是2019年表現最差的銀行股,由於其中國覆蓋較高及股本回報率較低,因此維持其“跑輸大市”投資評級。

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