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美銀證券:升內房股目標價 首選世房(0813.HK)、融創(1918.HK)等
格隆匯 01-07 11:52
美銀證券發表研究報告指,內地房地產政策自去年11月起稍有放鬆,令市場有所回暖,雖然當局為防止地價飆升而有采取適當的融資管控措施,但相信今年首季樓市仍維持平穩發展,在政策環境利好下,預期房企今年度銷售額可增長10%至15%,較去年約15%至20%放緩。
據美銀測算,主要內房開發商2020年合約銷售額將按年增長15%,當中由於行業持續整合,前十強內房整體銷售增速可能會放緩,但排名10至40位的開發商增長或仍能大大超越同行平均水平。在市場整體基數大、增幅減慢下,預期內房今年盈利平均可增長15%。
該行指出,除各地政府因城施策的適度放寬外,人民銀行已表明有必時將採取逆週期調節措施,目前只預期未來有輕微的房地產融資寬鬆,基於估值、盈利增長表現及貨幣寬鬆政策,較偏愛非國有企業,首選股票是世茂房地產(0813.HK) 、融創(1918.HK) 、中國海外(0688.HK) 和中國奧園(3883.HK) 。行業目標價平均上調9%,以反映匯率和估值提升。
該行又表示,今年可能推動內房股價表現的主題包括物管理業務分拆,看好華潤置地(1109.HK) 、世茂;户口落地政策改革,看好融創、龍湖(0960.HK) ;及城市更新項目,看好時代中國(1233.HK) 、奧園與富力地產(2777.HK)
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