食品飲料 | 茅台2020 規劃出台，穩發展堅定市場信心
機構：中信建投
本週觀點：
白酒行業步入巨頭後千億時代，巨頭戰略和規劃引發市場關注。我們認為，白酒行業結構性繁榮仍然成立，高端白酒穩中求進預計仍最穩健。
茅台方面：發展新週期跨過千億台階，夯實基礎謀求新發展
2019年，茅台集團實現營收1000億，提前一年實現“十三五”目標，進入後千億時代。回顧十三五以來，公司堅持“擴大酒天地、做足酒文章”綱領，通過市場營銷體系的新變革，步入了新上升週期：集團收入從419億元到突破千億、茅台品牌價值進一步鞏固提升。
2020年定調“基礎建設年”，穩字當頭夯基礎謀未來，通過進一步健全體系激發新增長活力，具體舉措包括傳統量價平衡政策、以及渠道結構優化等。2019年圓滿收官，營銷組織、數字化改革、品牌體系各項改革取得良好成效，全年收入圓滿完成目標，集團超千億、股份公司預計超500億元。
量價：2020年計劃量增11%略超預期，定調不提價2017~2019年公司對茅台酒計劃量分別為2.6、2.8、3.1、3.45萬噸，計劃量分別增長7.7%、10.7%，當年實際完成茅台酒銷量（報表確認）約3、3.2、3.4萬噸，實際量略高於計劃量。2020年公司計劃投放3.45萬噸茅台酒，計劃量較去年增長11%略超預期。
同時，價格方面預計維持18年末基調不作調整。另，春節期間公司計劃投放7500噸，其中6000噸投放於傳統經銷商渠道，其餘部分兼顧電商和商超，而團購和其他渠道春節前不作安排。
渠道：持續深化渠道變革，自營投放力爭翻倍2020年繼續深化對渠道的梳理和優化。1）從投放量來看，傳統經銷商配額按照17年計劃量的1.7萬噸不增不減，且中期內保持穩定；2）海外渠道投放2000噸；3）按照“扁平化”的思路與要求，安排商超、電商、團購計劃；4）大幅提升自營規模，原則上要成倍增長，其中33家茅台直營店加推2800噸；5）春節後加快組建電商公司，重新上線“茅台電商”，持續優化自營體系。
投資建議：高端白酒茅五瀘；精選次高端洋河股份、山西汾酒；精選地產酒古井貢酒、今世緣；強烈推薦啤酒板塊，青島啤酒、華潤啤酒、重慶啤酒、珠江啤酒；食品方面推薦伊利股份、海天味業、中炬高新、安井食品、絕味食品、洽洽食品。
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