中糧肉食(01610.HK)：中國領先的全產業鏈豬肉生產商，給予“買入”評級，目標價4.0港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：4.0港元
投資要點
首次覆蓋給予買入評級，目標價4.0港元：
1、豬瘟大概率與養殖行業共存，生豬存欄量恢復到疫情前水平的概率極低，豬價隨着疫情的反覆而波動，但價格中樞明顯上移，將在較長時間維持高位；2、豬週期到了驗證業績的階段，股價走勢將和業績直接掛鈎；3、散養户重返市場阻礙大，未來規模企業的市佔率將明顯提高，出欄量有望在2020年二季度明顯回升，規模企業的業績波動性降低；4、中糧肉食作為國企，產能擴張步伐相對穩健，但也降低了風險。從頭均市值看，公司處於低位。預測公司2019-2021年EPS分別為0.18/0.82/0.87元，給予目標價4.0港元，相當於2020年4.4倍PE，較現價有86%的漲幅，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
生豬養殖產能擴張，業績彈性大：
在有效疫苗大規模使用之前，疫情難以消除，散養户返回市場阻力較大，規模養殖户有望加大投產，但養殖密度無法快速提升，缺豬將是長期現象，豬價將長期維持較高水平。即使出現有效疫苗，高豬價也將至少維持到2021年，原因是一個完整的補欄週期約為13-14個月。非洲豬瘟疫情反覆，地理位置和防禦能力是關鍵，中糧肉食的重要養殖基地位置偏遠，地廣人稀，易於防控。假設公司2020年生豬出欄量為230萬頭，平均出欄價格為30元/公斤，單頭盈利約1500元，估算2020年養殖業務的營業利潤為34億元。
品牌生鮮肉助力提高屠宰業務盈利能力，肉類貿易仍有增長空間：
屠宰業務方面，公司的佈局方向是實現屠宰與養殖的無縫對接，這樣做可以使得屠宰業務的利潤波動降低，也能提高品牌生鮮肉的佔比。憑藉自身全產業鏈雄厚實力疊加中糧背景和渠道優勢，品牌生鮮肉在總體屠宰業務中的佔比逐年提高。由於品牌生鮮肉毛利率水平較高，從而有助於提高屠宰業務整體盈利能力。貿易方面，國內豬價高啟，國內外價差持續擴大，公司是國內肉類貿易的窗口，預期貿易業務有望在未來兩年維持暢旺態勢。
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