药明生物(2269.HK)：赋能全球生物药研发的CRO／CDMO龙头，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级，目标价116.16 港元
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
目标价：116.16 港元
核心观点： *如非特殊说明，本报告货币为人民币
生物制剂增速快、药企转型迫切，生物制剂研发服务市场随之高成长。 随着生物制剂市场的增长、产品和技术的更新换代，大型制药公司和中 小型 Biotech 与生物制剂研发服务供应商合作更加密切频繁。驱动因 素包括：1）药企创新转型迫切，研发支出增加；2）CRO 带来的成本 和时间的节省以及良好的供应链和产能管理；3）CRO 公司专业的高 端技术。预计未来 3-5 年生物制剂研发服务行业高景气度有望持续。
全球唯一提供全方位生物制剂研发服务的企业。药明生物业务包括临 床前至商业化生产，管线涵盖各类生物药。截至 2019 年中期，公司综 合项目数 224 个，其中单抗项目 132 个，融合蛋白项目 35 个，抗体 偶联药物 25 个，双特异性抗体 19 个，全球新（First-in-Class）项目 58 个，占比 26%。抗体偶联药物和双特异性抗体项目增长快，符合生 物药行业发展方向和创新趋势，彰显全球领先的技术平台实力。
核心竞争优势凸显，于全球市场的份额有望持续提升。药明生物拥有 WuXiBodyTM 双抗平台、WuXia 细胞系平台、WuXiUP 连续生产平台 等独家核心技术平台，具备高质量、高灵活度、高成功率、高表达量、 低成本等特点。同时对客户需求响应快、满足度高，不断缩短交付时 间，提高竞争力，依托中国工程师红利，人才团队迅速扩张，使得欧美 的生物制剂研发服务向其转移，未来于全球的份额有望持续提升。此 外，药明生物具备较强的新业务孵化能力和新技术开发能力，疫苗业务 有望成为新增长点，未来更多业务的开拓和长期持续高成长可期。
盈利预测与投资建议：预计 2019-2021 年收入增速 49%/43%/42%， 归母净利润增速 52%/46%/43%，EPS 为 0.74/1.09/1.55 元/股，当前 股价对应 PE 为 119/81/57x。采用 DCF 方法得到公司合理价值为 116.16 港元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
风险提示：研发进度不达预期；新增项目数量低于预期；行业政策风险
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
