2020年建材策略報告:穩中求進,盡享週期盛宴
機構:太平洋證券
投資策略
水泥:高景氣度延續,看好穩態週期下的估值修復。19Q4南方水泥價格上漲超預期,多地水泥價格超去 年同期,龍頭企業全年業績有望再次上修,同時將奠定明年開春價格高基數;10月份地產數據全面超預 期,標誌着短期地產投資有韌性,明年地產整體或不悲觀,而在政策持續催化下,基建復甦確定性大幅 提升,明年水泥需求有支撐。我們認為,明年需求不悲觀的背景下,行業盈利仍將維持高位,而過去2年 以及未來2年,行業盈利中樞以及穩定性大幅提升,水泥企業資產負債表大幅改善,有望成為這輪估值修 復的驅動力,目前龍頭企業估值普遍在6-7倍,分紅率提升仍極具配置價值。建議關注海螺水泥、華新水 泥、冀東水泥、萬年青、上峯水泥、塔牌集團、祁連山等。
玻璃:竣工週期支撐需求,盈利穩步向上。2019年下半年以來地產新開工有效向竣工端傳導,明年地產 有望進入竣工週期支撐玻璃需求;而從供給端來看,在環保高壓下以及成本大幅攀升的背景下,中小企 業生產線復產難度加大,明年產能有望保持動態平衡,新增產能衝擊有限,高盈利將持續,龍頭企業業 績彈性十足。建議關注旗濱集團,信義玻璃。
玻纖:行業拐點漸行漸近,龍頭迎佈局良機。受18年新增產能的衝擊,行業供需失衡導致19年價格持續 走弱,當前價格下大部分小企業已經不賺錢,行業景氣度基本觸底,19-20年行業新增產能十分有限,而 需求端仍保持穩定增長,政策支撐下風電覆蘇確定性強,20年汽車也有望觸底回升,行業景氣度將觸底 回升。我們認為,龍頭企業擁有技術、規模、資源等多重優勢,在下行週期中其競爭優勢更加凸顯,進 一步拉大與小企業差距,隨着行業景氣度回升,龍頭企業反彈力度更大。建議關注中國巨石、長海股份 中材科技等。
品牌建材:存量博弈時代下集中度提升,強者恆強。隨着宏觀經濟整體承壓,過去地產快速增長帶來的 紅利已經大幅減弱,地產後週期進入存量博弈時代,而細分龍頭企業擁有品牌、渠道、規模等優勢,企 業自身的“α”作用將充分體現,“良幣驅逐劣幣” 背景下集中度提升,龍頭企業進入新一輪成長。 2020年兩條主線:一是精裝房滲透率繼續快速提升,B端依舊是推動企業高增長的驅動力;二是地產進入 竣工週期,後周期品種需求有支撐;建議關注東方雨虹、北新建材、偉星新材等。
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