中國水務(0855.HK)：2020年財年中期業績合乎預期，重申“買入”評級，目標價10.50 港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：10.50 港元
上半年股東淨利潤同比增長 36.6%
受到(一)供水經營服務收入同比上升 10.6%；(二)供水建設服務收入同比增長 18.2%，公司 2020年財年(年結：3月31 日)上半年股東淨利潤同比增長 36.6%至港幣8.8 億(見圖表1)。 不計算公司於 2019 年 4 月因收購康達環保(6136 HK；未評級)之 29.52%股權而獲得的港幣 2.1 億負面商譽收益後，我們認為公司業績合乎我們及市場預期。
擴大主要業務規模，持續出售非核心資產
中國水務入主康達環保後，擴大了水務業務總規模。公司供水及污水處理的總處理能力 (未含在建及擬建項目)已經由 2019 年 3 月底之 894 噸/日增長至 2019 年 9 月底之 1,316 噸 /日。公司業務覆蓋也分別由全國 13 個省份及 3 個直轄市擴展至 20 個省份及 3 個直轄 市。另一方面，公司於 2020 年財年上半年內，出售了多項內地房地產項目非核心資產， 套現港幣 2.4 億現金總額。公司估計近期可處置非核心資產達到港幣 5 億以上。
調整股東淨利潤預測
根據是次中期業績，我們上調 2020 年財年股東淨利潤預測 12.3%以反映以上提及的負面 商譽收益，並微調 2021-2022 年財年股東淨利潤預測(見圖表 2) 。我們預期股東淨利潤將 由 2019 年財年的港幣 13.7 億上升至 2022 年財年的港幣 20.9 億，複合年增長率達到 15.2%。
重申“買入”評級
我們相應地微調由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的股權價值。經過四捨五入後，我們維持目 標價在 10.50 港元 (見圖表 3 和 4) 。這對應 9.5 倍 2020 年財年市盈率和 71.6%上升空間。 重申“買入”評級。
風險提示：(一)水源受到污染、(二)水價提升幅度及進度低於預期、(三)匯率風險。
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