蒙牛乳業(2319.HK)：加強高端化佈局，業務觸角伸向海外；首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價 37.0港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：37.0港元
投資要點
行業仍有增長空間，競爭態勢有望維持，集中度緩慢提升： 我國乳製品的人均消費量僅為日韓的 1/3 至1/2，估算未來 5 年我國乳制 品市場規模將維持5%左右的複合增速。產品方面，高端化趨勢將進一步 驅動行業增長，產品升級仍是主基調。成本方面，預計未來兩年原奶價 格温和上漲，乳企龍頭競爭態勢保持穩定，行業集中度持續、緩慢提升。
高端奶源保障產品結構升級，渠道下沉助力基礎白奶增長：
原奶方面，蒙牛對高端原奶資源的掌控力在業內領先，高質量原奶資源可覆 蓋超過 20%的產能。產品方面，受益於高端奶源的佈局，公司高端產品特侖 蘇和純甄的收入增速達 20%以上，大幅高於行業平均。產品結構的高端化有 助於提升企業的盈利能力，2016 年以來公司毛利率持續提升。渠道方面， 經過改革後，管理紅利逐步釋放，渠道下沉戰略也取得一定成效，對渠道依 賴性較強的蒙牛基礎白奶收入在 2019H1 同比增長 19%。
國際化收購步伐加快，加強高端化佈局，完善供應鏈體系：
2019 年中，公司宣佈收購澳大利亞奶粉品牌貝拉米（收入規模約 16 億人民 幣）進一步佈局高端奶粉;11 月,公司宣佈收購澳大利亞著名乳企 Lion Dairy &Drinks（税後利潤超 2 億人民幣）。如上述收購順利完成，公司有 望在澳洲建立起一個具備優質奶源、乳品加工、冷鏈物流、多元化品牌的完 整產業鏈，有助於公司繼續發展高端產品、降低高端奶源成本和供給壓力、 為公司提供國內、澳洲以及東南亞地區市場的拓展機遇，完善供應鏈體系。 首次覆蓋給予買入評級，目標價 37.0 港元： 我們預計公司2019-2021 年 EPS 將分別為1.75/1.18/1.40 元人民幣，給予 目標價 37.0港元，對應 2020年28 倍 PE，較現價有23.5%的漲幅空間， 首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
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