花旗:中国5年期LPR下调利好地产股 首选世房(0813.HK)等
花旗发表研究报告指,中国央行在贷款市场报价利率(LPR)改革后首次下调5年期品种的利率,早于预期。利率下调整体有利于房地产等高杠杆行业的前景,世茂房地产(0813.HK)、旭辉控股(0884.HK)、龙光地产(3380.HK)、融创中国(1918.HK)、龙湖集团(0960.HK)等为行业首选。
花旗指,尽管只下调了5个基点,但这意味着新的流动性周期开启,预计未来12个月在非食品CPI稳定、PPI持弱的情况下,还会有渐进及定期的下调。花旗续指,房地产政策在一二线城市可能保持稳定,对更低线城市,明年政策焦点在于如何助力房价止跌。在接下来的政治局会议和年底的中央经济工作会议中,对房地产政策的定调可能会更温和。
另外,花旗指,LPR利率下调将直接降低居民房贷利率,不过目前对购房者的月供影响有限,房地产开发商5年期以上的贷款也会受益。预计2020年,上市的中资开发商能维持13%的销售成长,像世茂和旭辉等中间梯队或能实现20-30%的增长。
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