中金公司(3908.HK)：衍生品業務貢獻大，探索財富管理數字化，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
中金公司前三季度實現歸母淨利潤31.4億元，同比增長15%。公司發佈2019年三季報，2019年Q1-3中金公司共實現營業收入111.9億元，同比+13.8%；扣非歸母淨利潤31.4億元，同比+15%；Q1-3EPS為0.74元/股，同比+15%；Q1-3加權平均ROE為7.3%，較上年同期增加0.3個百分點。公司剔除客户保證金後權益乘數6.0倍。
衍生品業務發力，輕資產業務表現穩定。輕資產業務：1）投行業務方面，2019年前三季度公司投行業務淨收入20.07億元，同比-7.6%。2）投資管理方面，公司前三季度資管業務收入4.10億元，同比-1.5%。3）經紀方面，2019Q1-3公司經紀業務收入22.58億元，同比+7.71%。重資產業務：1）利息淨支出三個季度共6.08億元，同比+272%，主要歸於2019年政策寬鬆，公司新增發行結構性票據及美元中期票據，且從銀行拆入的資金規模增加。2）2019前三季度投資收益52.21億元，同比+45%，主要歸於公司場外衍生品業務規模增加產生的收益。
聯合騰訊探索財富管理，定增擴大淨資本規模。9月24日公司宣佈與騰訊成立合資公司，結合雙方的優勢開展財富管理業務。10月17日公司公告稱已於前日訂立配售協議，擬對外配售共1.76億股新H股，配售所得款項淨額預計約為25.02億港元（22.59億元）。將用於補充公司資本金，重資本業務或將得到促進。
投資建議：持續看好中金公司的發展前景。公司作為國內投研能力頂尖的券商，經營穩健，盈利能力突出。淨資本規模擴大後，重資產業務盈利能力或將進一步上升。預計公司2019-2021年BVPS分別為10.62/11.55/12.63元，按最新收盤價計算對應PB分別為1.2/1.1/1.0倍。2015H1-2018年公司PB估值中樞在1.2-2.3x，當前估值仍有提升空間，結合公司未來盈利能力趨勢，給予公司2019年1.6xPB估值，H股合理價值為18.67港幣/股，維持買入評級。
風險提示：市場成交金額持續下滑；創新業務收入確認不及預期。
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