石藥集團(1093.HK)：業績持續穩健增長，重視創新管線價值，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點
如非特殊説明，本報告貨幣單位為人民幣元
收入增長27.5%，歸母淨利潤增長24.0%，業績符合預期。公司披露2019年3季報，收入167.61億元（+27.5%），毛利潤118.88億元（+38.7%），歸母淨利潤28.11億元（+24.0%），高利潤率創新藥的強勁增長帶動毛利率大幅提高至70.9%（+5.7pct），業績符合預期。
抗腫瘤產品和恩必普增長靚麗，收入結構不斷優化。前3季度創新藥收入95.25億元，同比增長51.9%，收入佔比提升至57%（+9.2pct）。恩必普實現銷售額40億元，近3年CAGR約35%。抗腫瘤重點產品津優力/克艾力/多美素分別實現銷售額約11/11/12億元，腫瘤板塊收入佔比提升至約20%（約+9pct）。銷售團隊擴充+空白市場拓展，創新藥有望維持強勁增長。普藥收入38.62億元（+6.0%），考慮集採和醫保調整帶來的增長以及銷售團隊調整完成，預計2020年普藥增長將顯著提速。維生素C收入15.96億元（+15.3%），抗生素收入7.15億元（-17.2%），其他收入10.63億元（+8.2%）。公司收入結構不斷優化。
研發投入大幅增加，重視創新管線價值。公司研發費用15.01億元（+64.0%），佔製劑收入比例12.2%。通過自研和引進，公司目前在研產品中創新藥100餘項，其中大分子創新藥50餘項，小分子創新藥40餘項。重磅新型製劑產品兩性黴素B膽固醇硫酸脂複合物、米託蒽醌脂質體、伊立替康脂質體；創新藥PI3K抑制劑、CD20單抗、RANKL單抗等產品有望於未來1-2年獲批，助力公司持續穩健成長。
盈利預測與投資建議：公司業績持續靚麗，在研創新品種不斷豐富，研發成果轉化值得期待。預計19-21年收入增速25%/22%/21%，歸母淨利潤增速23%/22%/22%，EPS為0.72/0.88/1.08港元/股，當前股價對應PE28/23/19x。採用DCF方法得到公司合理價值為23.38港元/股，對應20年PE26x，21年PE22x，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：行業政策風險；臨牀進展不達預期
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