石藥集團(1093.HK)2019 年三季報點評：業績持續快速增長，新藥管線佈局深厚，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆前三季度業績符合預期。公司前三季度收入167.6億元（+27.5%），歸母淨利潤28.1億元（+24.0%），每股盈利45.15分（+24.3%），符合市場預期。毛利率同比提升5.8pp至70.9%，公司盈利結構持續優化。在核心產品驅動下，創新藥業務收入大幅增長51.9%。公司淨利潤增速慢於收入端，主要受到銷售開支及研發開支加大影響。
◆成藥業務表現理想，創新藥佔比提升至57%。1）創新藥產品線表現靚麗，營收達到95.3億元（+51.9%），已佔前三季度總收入57.0%。恩必普持續市場下沉，預計年底銷售團隊有望增加至2400人，前三季度收入強勁增長35.7%至40億元，考慮到終端下沉與學術推廣齊發力，預計20年仍有望保持快速增長。2）普藥業務由於銷售改革及團隊整合，前三季度收入同比增長6.0%至38.6億元，整合完成後有望加強學術推廣和醫生服務能力，預期有望實現恢復增長。
◆克艾力銷售強勁，抗腫瘤產品線成公司新增長引擎。抗腫瘤產品增長170.7%至34.8億元：前三季度多美素、津優力維持高速增長至12.1和10.7億元，克艾力收入貢獻超過11億元，增長勢頭仍然強勁。抗腫瘤板塊高增長主要是：1）重點品種醫院覆蓋率增長；2）銷售團隊擴充並加大學術推廣力度；3）新產品上市快速放量。隨着公司在抗腫瘤領域影響力的逐步建立，預計該板塊未來幾年有望維持強勁增長。
◆研發投入強勁，管線穩步推進。公司研發力度持續增加，前三季度研發費用達15億元，佔成藥收入比重為11.2%，研發投入處行業領先水平且有望持續加碼。仿製藥共有16個品種、21個品規通過一致性評價，有望藉助帶量採購政策快速切入市場。新藥方面，新型製劑、大分子和小分子研發平台各具特色，預計未來三年有望每年推動3~5個新藥品種上市。管線中新型製劑兩性黴素B脂質體和米託蒽醌脂質體、創新藥CD20單抗、PI3K抑制劑有望於20~21年獲批，預計將成為公司新一代重磅炸彈。
◆盈利預測與投資評級。公司盈利結構持續優化，現有產品增速穩健並有望維持，我們維持19-21年EPS預測分別為0.62/0.74/0.86元，同比增長22%/18%/17%，對應19-21年PE分別為30/25/21x。考慮到公司研發技術平台優勢凸顯，儲備重磅品種有望有序上市，當前估值仍具吸引力，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：原料藥價格波動，產品銷售不及預期，研發不及預期。
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