石藥集團(1093.HK)：業績符合預期，恩必普及抗腫瘤新藥雙驅動，維持“買入”評級
機構：國金證券
評級：買入
事件
今日，公司發佈2019三季報，業績符合預期。收入約167.6億人民幣，同增27.5%；毛利率約70.9%，同比升5.7%；歸母約28.1億元，同比增24%；實現基本EPS為0.45元。
點評
恩必普Q3單季仍保持較好增速，與抗腫瘤藥雙驅動延續：核心品種恩必普是公司業績第一大驅動因素，目前基層滲透較低，預計未來渠道下沉、院外推廣、以及OTC渠道嘗試等方案將是該品種主要發展方向。預計Q1-Q3收入約40億元（同比約35.7%），Q3收入12.4億（同比約34.5%）。公司第二大驅動因素為抗腫瘤藥，抗腫瘤領域前三季度同比增速約170.7%，其中白蛋白紫杉醇快速放量，同比約590.4%，今年有望銷售額超15億元。另外，多美素及津優力前三季度同比增速約118%及129.5%。
原料藥Q3業績有所回落，普藥依靠品種優勢有望環比改善穩定增長：公司整體原料藥版塊符合預期，業績回落，未來預計維持穩定，預計未來新諾威維持穩定，VC價格企穩略微回升，抗生素戰略性地位逐步下降。普藥版塊隨着銷售改革和優勢品種放量，整體增速穩健。今年帶量採購擴面全國談判中，公司新批品種氯吡格雷進入目錄，預計明年放量，有望銷售額達到4-5億元，期待阿卡波糖的進展。另外，阿比多爾明年銷售貢獻業績。
公司研發投入提升，在研管線不斷豐富，研發平台價值凸顯：公司2019年Q1-Q3研發投入約15億元，同比增速約64%，研發投入力度加大，符合預期。實體瘤創新管線已確定後選品種26項，小分子12項，大分子14項，11項進入臨牀，15項臨牀前。建議關注公司NDDS新劑型改進品種，有望在中國市場中放量銷售，例如有望明年上市的兩性黴素B脂質體和米託蒽醌脂質體，及伊立替康脂質體等品種。以及處於臨牀II-III期的新藥品種，如抗CD20單克隆抗體（SCT400）、抗EGFR單克隆抗體（JMT101）、抗RANKL單克隆抗體（JMT103）、PI3K抑制劑等
估值與盈利預測
公司業績穩定增長，研發加大投入穩定推進。我們給予2019-2021三年EPS為0.74/0.91/1.10元，PE為27.7/22.6/18.7倍。
風險提示
帶量採購進度不確定；輔助用藥政策對品種的影響不確定；研發進展存在不確定；19年及以後業績調為人民幣結算，預測模型存在匯率不確定性。
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