中糧包裝 (0906.HK )：行業加速整合&加多寶糾紛解決方案落地，基本面有望迎來拐點，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
機構：華西證券
評級：買入
目標價：4.02港元
事件概述：
11月15日，公司發佈公告稱其於14日收到香港國際仲裁中心於10月31日出具的《部分仲裁裁決書》，歷時近兩年的加多寶糾紛解決方案成功落地。
加多寶糾紛解決方案成功落地。裁決使股東權益得到保障：公司所獲的2.30億元賠償為按中糧包裝投資實際出資時間及金額計算的應得收益，773萬元則為對應利息，該裁決結果公平合理，合乎公司及其股東利益。雙方合作進一步推進：該裁決認定之前香港王老吉（加多寶旗下公司）申請的終止增資協議無效以及要求加多寶須配合商標註入手續。公司收到上述仲裁裁決後已和加多寶集團進行有效溝通，未來將與加多寶集團密切合作，共同推動加多寶集團上市計劃,從而實現持續健康的發展。
鋁包裝業務：二片罐行業加速整合&啤酒罐化率穩步提升，行業供需格局優化。供給端：新增產能有限，近兩年落地及在建的較大項目主要來自於一線制罐企業，我們推算二片罐總增加產能約27.7億罐，若考慮皇冠產能退出，二片罐新增產能實際更少。行業通過收併購加速整合，目前已初步形成中糧包裝+奧瑞金+波爾、寶鋼包裝、昇興+太平洋三大產能集羣，產能市佔率合計佔比約70%。需求端：啤酒罐化率穩步提升帶來增量市場，我們預計2019-2021年二片罐年新增需求約20-30億罐。
馬口鐵業務：收入端有一定壓力，成本端受益原材料價格下跌。受部分客户向兩片罐轉換以及地產因素影響，三片罐、方圓罐銷售承壓拖累馬口鐵業務同比下降5.5%。原材料馬口鐵價格回落，2019H1馬口鐵業務毛利率同比提升0.4pct至15.2%，後續仍有望持續改善。
投資建議：我們預計2019-2021年中糧包裝實現營收分別為72.5/79.1/85.6億元，實現歸母淨利潤分別為3.0/3.4/3.9億元，對應EPS分別為0.26/0.30/0.34元，PE分別為12.2/10.6/9.3X。公司2012年以來PE中樞13倍，我們認為基本面改善有望推動估值向中樞回升；同時參考A股可比公司2020年平均14倍估值，我們給予公司12倍PE，對應EPS0.30元，目標價為3.60元（以1人民幣兑1.1167港幣計算為4.02港元），首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：原材料價格上漲、啤酒罐化率提升不及預期；客户拓展不及預期、A股和港股的系統性風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
