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中金:蒙牛(2319.HK)收入增速保持強勁 維持“跑贏行業”評級
格隆匯 11-13 16:39

中金公司發佈報告稱,蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)預計2H19收入增速將略高於年初低雙位數的增長指引,該行根據調研指出3Q19 收入基本維持上半年的中雙位數增長,我們預計 4Q19 該增速將持續。明星產品中,特侖蘇3Q增速超過25%,純甄增速28%,均較1H有所加速;基礎白奶和低温酸奶均實現雙位數的超行業增速。維持其“跑贏行業”評級,目標價35.6港元不變。

該行表示,公司預計4Q19 奶價同比仍將維持高於年初預期的漲幅,成本壓力或將導致 2H19 毛利率承壓,我們判斷公司全年奶價漲幅7%-8%。目前原奶供給增速仍慢於需求,公司預計2020年原奶價格仍將保持個位數上漲,公司將依靠產品結構升級積極對衝。

該行預計,因廣告費用投放的規模效應逐步發揮,同時線下競爭2H並未加劇,加上公司通路精耕帶來的費用使用效率提高,2H19費用率同比仍有小幅壓縮空間。又因毛利率壓力加大,2019年實現營業利潤率同比提升50bps 的指引有一定壓力,但利潤率提升趨勢不改,這一趨勢2020年仍將持續。

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