金隅集團(2009.HK)：地產拖累業績，明年水泥景氣度有望再上台階，目標價3.39港元
機構：興業證券
目標價：3.39港元
投資要點
前三季度收入673.64億元，同比增20.15%；歸母淨利潤37.16億元，同比增19.75%。第三季度收入227.53億元，同比增9.9%，歸母淨利潤6.7億元，同比降3.26%。
水泥和物業板塊繼續貢獻主要業績增量，地產結轉不及預期，債務重組損失導致新型建材板塊虧損。水泥板塊營業收入311億元，利潤50.63億元，同比增54%。Q3計提了債務重組損失3.8億元，導致新型建材板塊虧損3.7億元。房地產開發板塊結轉收入141億元，利潤20億元，同比降7%。物業板塊實現利潤4.6億元，同比增42%。
Q3水泥銷量受大慶影響，明年預期較為樂觀。水泥熟料銷量Q3同比下滑5.8%，預計9月單月下滑超過15%，主要是70週年大慶導致京津冀自9月23日全面停工，水泥需求斷崖，預計10月公司發貨量仍將受到明顯影響，10月22日起預警陸續解除，至11月上旬採暖季之前發貨量預計會有明顯回補。Q1-3產量增長攤薄了費用。混凝土板塊減虧。展望2020年，隨着雄安新區進入開工密集階段，京津冀基建需求有望爆發，需求前景樂觀。環保壓力持續，供給側無放鬆跡象，我們預計明年京津冀區域景氣度有望再上一個台階。同時，環保高壓下，小企業的成本上升更快，金隅冀東的競爭力有所提高。
房地產板塊前三季度簽約額137億元並不理想，或難以完成年初新簽約額350億元的指引，拿地謹慎，影響未來幾年的結轉。公司工作重心向加快盤活工業用地傾斜，抵消商品房調控政策的不利影響。
我們的觀點：京津冀基建的序幕剛開始，城市羣的建設遠落後於長三角和珠三角，公司水泥板塊仍然具備較大彈性。長維度來看，北方大市場正逐步形成中國建材、金隅冀東為核心的競爭格局，集中度將繼續提升，競爭格局的改善是長期看點。預計公司19-21年歸母淨利潤分別為49.0、52.7、53.3億元。維持目標價3.39港元，建議投資者積極關注。
風險提示：水泥需求失速；水泥協同破裂;雄安新區落地不及預期；地產調控；原材料價格波動；環保及事件風險。
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