雙匯發展（000895.SZ）：低價原料、提價貢獻彈性，Q4有望延續
作者：方振 董廣陽 於芝歡
來源：華創食飲
主要觀點
事項
19Q3業績超預期。19年前三季度收入419.68億元，同比+14.99%；歸母淨利39.43億元，同比+7.86%；扣非淨利潤37.49億元，同比+9.02%；經營性現金流淨額26.84億元，同比-32.13%。19Q3營業收入165.53億元，同比+28.51%，歸母淨利15.44億元，同比+23.88%。
評論
年內5次提價拉動肉製品盈利提升。19Q3肉製品收入68.2億元，同比+9.0%，增長由價升貢獻，肉製品銷量43萬噸同比持平，噸價1.59萬元，同比+9.0%，經營利潤率達21.5%，同比+0.4pct，環比上升5.4pcts，創新高。預計盈利提升主要源於提價效應，但低成本原料、技術及工藝創新亦綜合對衝了成本上行。展望四季度，因公司對肉製品採取被動提價策略，隨豬價持續上漲，預計公司年內仍將有提價舉動。
低成本原料帶來彈性，頭均淨利創新高。19Q3屠宰收入105.5億元，同比+40.6%， Q3屠宰量269萬頭，同比-28.3%，19Q3行業定點生豬屠宰量4427萬頭，同比-24.3%，公司市佔率提升速度放緩；利潤端，頭均利潤179.3元/頭，同比+244.8%，判斷利潤提升主要來自於凍肉庫存釋放及進口肉增加所致。19Q3生鮮肉銷量37萬噸，同比-2.6%，生鮮肉銷售均價28.5元/kg，同比+44.4%。
低成本原料儲備達歷史高點，預計Q4業績改善趨勢延續。19Q3公司與羅特克斯關聯交易達18.7億元，18年以來整體進口量呈現U形，以海關進口豬肉均價測算，18Q3/18Q4/19Q1/19Q2/19Q3進口量分別5.51/1.54/2.83/8.78/11.8萬噸，於19Q3出現大幅增長，原因在於中美貿易摩擦提高進口豬肉關税導致中美豬肉價差縮小，但在國內豬價持續上漲下中美豬肉價差優勢進一步顯現，目前中國生豬價格約為美國5倍水平，同時公司亦從歐洲地區進口豬肉。凍肉方面，19Q3末公司存貨77.6億元，達歷史高點。同時公司亦增加副產品豬毛腸的關聯交易金額平抑成本波動，預計在19Q4豬價持續上漲趨勢下，低成本原料使用及提價效應將繼續釋放業績彈性。
投資建議
盈利預測、估值及投資評級：短期看，低成本原料、提價釋放公司業績彈性，長期看，屠宰行業加快整合趨勢不改，公司藉助產業鏈一體化優勢有望熨平波動，肉製品經營改善趨勢不變。我們上調2019-2021年EPS預測至1.63/1.77/1.97(原預測為1.50/1.55/1.71元)，對應增速為10.1%/8.5%/11.2%，目前股價對應PE為16/15/13倍，考慮公司業績改善帶來估值修復，上調目標價至31.5元，對應20年約18X估值，維持評級“推薦”。
風險提示
風險提示：中美貿易摩擦加劇；豬價漲幅超預期；肉製品改善不及預期等。
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