綠城服務(2869.HK)：規模製勝，品質為王，打造行業標杆，首次覆蓋予以“買入”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：買入
投資要點
基礎物業樹品牌，嫁接增值服務。綠城服務主要依賴基礎物業服務業務來樹立品牌，進而通過增值服務來實現盈利。公司 2019 年上半年諮詢服務、園區服務毛利率均超過了 30%，遠高於傳統物管服務毛利情況，增值服務重要性不言而喻。從增值業務後續開展看，公司在管項目位於一二線城市比例高，客户對增值服務的支付意願和支付能力強；且優質的物管服務為小區物業和業主之間打下更為密切的基礎，物業推廣相關服務時難度更小。
三大業務協同發展，共鑄物管全產業鏈服務。1）物業管理：規模製勝，品牌領先。截至 19H1，綠城物業管理儲備面積 2.07 億平米，在管面積達 1.84 億平米，累計合同面積達 3.91 億平米；公司成長潛力較強，合約面積/在管面積達到 212%。公司外拓方式傾向於招投標，收併購逐漸減少。外拓方式中招投標方式逐漸成熟，優勢在於不需要額外花費資金獲取項目。2）諮詢服務：B 端業務全方位覆蓋，盈利能力持續提升。截至 19H1，綠城在建物業服務、管理諮詢服務收入佔比分別是 82%、18%，毛利率持續提升至 38.1%。3）園區服務：品質為上，新業務後來居上。
2018 年公司園區服務收入為 13.10 億元，同比增長 46%，2014-2018 年該業務平均複合增速達 74.4%，為三大業務中發展速度最快的業務。
19H1該業務毛利率回升至 31.3%，同比提升 1.1 個百分點，預計後續隨着諸多園區服務業務的成熟，業務毛利率有望持續回升。
中短期物管行業仍最看重規模增長。收入端增長主要依賴於在管面積提升，以綠城服務為例，量、價對收入增長的貢獻度分別為5%、95%；面積端擴容主要有內生增長和外延拓展兩個方式，公司具備超強的市場化拓展能力，品牌推動招投標中籤率持續高位。綠城服務在管面積中僅僅21%來自綠城集團。
投資建議：綠城服務作為物管行業全方位生活服務商，規模優勢顯著，在管面積穩健增長、儲備面積豐富，推動業績穩健增長；公司口碑和服務品質領先同業，客户粘性和外拓能力較強；項目佈局集中核心一二線城市，未來業主增值服務潛力可期。我們預計2019-2021年公司EPS分別為0.21、0.26、0.32元人民幣，對應PE分別為35.01、28.48、23.78倍，首次覆蓋予以“買入”評級。
風險提示：行業銷售規模大幅下滑；按揭貸款利率大幅上行；房地產政策大幅收緊；房企資金成本大幅上行。
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