萬科:從負債為王,成為資產為王
作者:謝皓宇、白淑媛
來源:小謝看地產
合作項目結算加快,盈利能力小幅提升,淨利潤增速超預期;短期盈利能力和現金流匹配,以增加無息負債來降有息負債。
1、維持增持評級。萬科作為國內住宅開發龍頭,產品溢價能力及適應市場的能力較強;維持公司2019/2020/2021年EPS為3.82/4.52/5.52元,同比增長28%/19%/22%,維持目標價41.35元,現價對應2019年7倍PE。
2、合作項目結算加快,盈利能力小幅提升。
前三季度,公司實現營業收入2,239億元,同比增長27.2%;實現歸母淨利潤182億元,同比增長30.4%。淨利潤超預期,主要是合作項目結算加快(同比增加32.5%);此外,雖然公司的結算毛利率較去年同期下降0.2個pct,但三費率也下降0.9個pct,主要是財務費用下降245個pct,且主因存貨減值相比於去年虧損減少,資產減值損失同比減少49%,因此歸母淨利潤率上升0.2個pct。
3、短期盈利能力和現金流匹配,以增加無息負債來降有息負債。
從短期來看,公司貨幣資金覆蓋率為1.71,與去年同期持平。從長期來看,公司有息負債為2306億元,同比下降5.2%,為近4年來的首次下降,淨負債率也較去年下降5.1%。但是,公司的應付票據及應付賬款上升較快,增速從去年同期的23.3%上升到41.8%,説明公司在減少有息負債,增加無息負債。
4、保持市場敬畏,銷售和結算幾乎持平。
原有地產開發業務方面,繼續保持平穩,拿地強度略有下降,拿地面積(2832萬方)和銷售面積(3062萬方)基本匹配,沒有額外新增大量土儲,因此財務報表中存貨週轉率略有上升。公司預收賬款與合同負債增速從去年同期的35.7%下降為6%,説明公司銷售和結算幾乎持平,銷售增速減緩和結算進度加快導致。
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