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【國君食品】絕味食品2019三季報點評:成本管控提升,規模效應凸顯
格隆匯 10-24 11:38

作者:國君零售訾猛,馬錚

來源:猛哥看商業

投資建議

投資建議:Q3收入平穩增長,業績略超預期。休閒滷製品行業保持快速增長,絕味持續推進門店擴張,單店競爭優勢優於行業。維持2019-21年EPS1.37、1.71、2.13元,目標價53元,對應2020年31X PE,增持評級。

成本管控能力提升,費用率略升與買贈有關。公司2019Q1-3營收38.86億、歸母淨利潤6.14億,同比增長19%、26%,其中,Q3營收13.96億、歸母淨利潤2.18億,同比增長18.2%、26.5%,毛利率同比升1.6pct至35.52%,預計與鴨副產品成本回落及庫存平滑能力提升有關,銷售費用率同比略升0.32pct至8.72%,或與階段性買贈活動增多有關,屬正常經營節奏,管理費用率同比降0.93pct至5.10%,規模效應凸顯,淨利率同比升0.99pct至15.38%。Q3 銷售收現與收入相匹配,經營現金流情況良好。

華中、華東穩步增長,華南收入增速略高。19Q1-3滷製品收入達38億,其中禽類、蔬菜類為30億、4億,佔比77.83%、10.55%,蔬菜類佔比環比H1略升0.13pct。分地區看,華中、華東、華南收入佔比分別為26.46%、25.35%、18.81%,華南佔比環比提升0.63pct,保持較高增長速度。

門店擴張和單店收入平穩增長,上游原材料成本管控能力提升、供應鏈規模效應凸顯。在供應鏈和渠道管控優勢下,預計門店擴張和單店收入增長有望支撐全年15%以上的增速。規模效應凸顯,對上游更強的議價能力、門店管控的費用投放邊際遞減,保障利潤率穩中有升。“椒椒有味”、“美食生態圈”將加速輸出公司管理勢能,增厚公司業績。

風險提示:食品安全;同店增速階段性下滑。

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