海螺水泥(0914.HK)：Q4有望維持歷史最高盈利水平，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價54.48 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：54.48 港元
投資要點
公司披露前三季度業績：收入 1108 億元，同比增長 42.37%；歸母淨利潤 238 億元，同比增長 14.96%。Q3 收入 391 億元，同比增 22.0%，歸母淨利 85.56 億元，同比增 10.06%。 業績符合市場預期。我們預計 Q3 銷量（自產自銷部分）8600 萬噸，同比增長 12%，噸淨利約 100 元，同比持平。報告期內經營活動現金流 260 億元，同比 增 26.1%，期末賬上淨現金 631 億。宂餘現金的問題逐漸凸顯，導致前三季度 ROE 同比下降了 1.6 個 pct 至 19.8%，但依靠較高的水泥盈利能力，ROE 仍能 保持在極高的水平，顯示了公司極強的盈利能力。 資本開支加大力度，是解決宂餘現金問題的關鍵。海螺資本開支提升至 60.3 億元，同比增 130.6%，預計來自海外的新建項目以及國內骨料的支出，預計 新的項目未來可以保持較好的回報，這對公司長期發展及估值提升是正面的。
水泥需求好於年初預期，且持續超預期，價格保持了有剋制的上漲。Q2 以來 全國水泥需求保持持續高增長，幅度遠超市場預期，1-9 月需求仍有 6.9%的增 長，而華東地區高基數下增長 9.3%，表現尤為搶眼，海螺市場份額仍在提升。
從近期華東、華南的發貨、庫存以及漲價來看，預計 Q4 依然是能維持歷史最 高的盈利水平。海螺庫存維持了極低的水平，顯示所在區域良好的供需環境， 而近期浙江、江西、廣東漲價態勢迅猛，局部地區已接近去年高位，而未來 2 個月亦是旺季，疊加 Q4 較為明顯的經濟壓力，基建強度仍在加大，我們預計 Q4 或能維持去年曆史最高的盈利水平。 行業明年的盈利態勢主要取決於房地產需求的二階變化，從供給端的角度我們 預計盈利不會出現較大幅度下滑。我們預計海螺依靠國內的併購、海外的新建 以及骨料等上下游關聯領域的拓展仍能提供一定的成長性。
我們的觀點：我們基於 2 種情景假設分析用 DCF 模型測算認為海螺內在價值 合理，依然具備較高的配置價值，年化複利回報較好。預計 2019-2021 年公司 歸屬淨利潤 331 億元、343 億元、352 億元，最新收盤價對應 19 年預測 PE 約 6.9 倍。維持“審慎增持”評級及 54.48 港元的目標價。
風險提示：經濟惡化、行業協同破裂、原材料價格大幅波動
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