雅生活服務(3319.HK):多元化的優質物業管理公司，具備潛在估值擴張空間；首次覆蓋給予買入評級，目標價26.75港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：26.75港元
核心觀點（除非特殊註明，首頁及正文使用貨幣單位為人民幣）：
公司即將形成大規模、多元化的物業管理行業佈局
公司的兩大地產股東為雅居樂和綠地控股，公司有望接管絕大部分雅居 樂開發項目，而綠地控股每年為雅生活服務提供超過 1000 萬平方米的項目。 中民物業和新中民物業收購完成後，公司將形成住宅、商業和公建等多元化 業態的大規模物業管理公司。
影響公司估值因素均在改善，公司估值有望逐步提升
過往公司受營銷業務佔比較高、收購項目較多和未進入港股通等因素影 響，估值一直低於同行。目前幾個影響公司估值的因素已出現改善。其一， 隨着公司幾個收購項目並表，營銷業務（確認於其他外延增值服務中）佔比 將持續下降。其二，2019H1 的業績表明，公司幾個收購項目表現良好。其 三，公司市值較前期有所增長，我們預計公司有望於 2020 年進入港股通。
預計公司估值有望修復到接近同行的水平
中民物業及新中民物業擬收購事項後，雅生活服務即將形成大體量、多 元化業態的物業管理佈局。導致其過往估值遠低於同行的因素正在改善：公 司營銷業務佔比進入下降趨勢，收購業務表現良好，且我們預計公司有望於 2020 年進入港股通。我們預測公司 2019-2021 年的 EPS 分別是 0.87、1.21 和 1.52 元/股。目前幾家大市值物業股估值水平約為 23-32 倍 2020 年 PE 倍 數。我們給予公司 20 倍 2020 年 PE 合理估值，對應公司的高成長和相對同 行的折價，合理價值為 26.75HKD。首次覆蓋給予買入評級。
風險提示：1、營銷業務（確認於其他外延增值服務中）佔比未如期下降； 2、地產銷售波動影響未來物業管理公司盈利能力；3、市場競爭加劇； 4、併購項目整合不達預期
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