中信證券:維持華夏幸福(600340.SH)“買入”評級 目標價45.79元
中信證券發表華夏幸福研報稱,公司三季報最大的特點是銷售合同金額和銷售回款明顯好轉,而這種好轉是公司資產負債表改善的最重要前提。
公司業績符合預期。公司前三季度實現營業收入643.2億元,同比增長42.5%,實現歸母淨利潤97.5億元,同比增長23.7%,符合市場預期。認為公司完全有能力達到此前的盈利承諾。
經營持續好轉,銷售合同金額和銷售回款明顯改善。2019 年三季度,公司銷售回款234 億元,同比增長44.9%。這推動前三季度銷售回款同比增長19.1%,達到去年全年的84.1%。2019 年三季度,公司銷售合同金額和銷售面積出現久違的大幅正增長,分別達到32.8%和44.3%。這説明公司經營出現明顯邊際改善,最困難的時刻已經過去。我們預計,公司全年銷售回款將增長25%以上。
拿地開支仍然較大,預計槓桿率會維持高位,但公司信用已經較之以往強化。
2019 年前三季度,公司公告新增土地規模較之2018 年同期顯著增長。而且,公司在武漢等地開展新業務,投入地價規模超過百億。由於公司許多項目處於投入期,地價支付需求不少,儘管公司銷售回款流入加速,且注意開展項目層面合作,我們仍預計公司槓桿率將維持較高水平,並不會明顯下降。2019 年三季度末,公司淨負債率較之2019 年中報略下降,但仍超過200%。不過,由於公司的股東背景加持和銷售回款回暖,預計信用已經較之過去有明顯強化。我們預計公司融資成本不會繼續上行。
應收賬款規模穩定,預計未來資產負債表優化。2018 年之後公司應收賬款規模明顯增加,投資者越發擔心公司產業新城的經營情況。2019 年三季度末,公司應收賬款科目較之2019 年中期略有下降。我們預計,隨着公司經營優化,應收賬款將首先出現結構改善(長賬齡下降),接着出現絕對規模的下行。
行業環境對公司有利,期待公司資產負債表改善。當前包括環京在內的主要大都市圈市場較為景氣,房企信用分層更加嚴重,產業新城模式仍具備長期生命力。維持公司2019/2020/2021 年EPS 預測5.09/6.27/8.80 元,維持45.79元/股的目標價,維持“買入”的投資評級。
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