捷昌驅動（603583.SH）：貿易摩擦影響毛利，長期看好線性驅動行業
作者：秦基慄
來源：萌主風向標
事件
上半年實現營收6.51億元，同比+36.01%，歸母淨利潤1.51億元，同比+42.63%，扣非歸母淨利潤1.29億元，同比+22.97%。單季度Q2實現營收3.69億元，同比+24.73%，歸母淨利潤0.91億元，同比+43.20%。
簡評
上半年由於出口搶單營收+36%業績+43%，綜合毛利率41.88%，同比僅小幅下降0.23pct，貿易摩擦影響尚未完全體現；我們判斷下半年開始貿易摩擦影響將完全顯現，公司辦公桌線性驅動產品收入佔比7成以上，且以出口美國為主，目前已被徵收25%關税，公司需要承擔大部分。8月公司公告出資2530萬美元在馬來西亞設立孫公司作為東南亞製造基地，海外建廠穩步推進，建議密切關注投產時間點。
上半年扣非增速僅22.97%，主要是由於上半年收到800萬上市補助和委託投資賺取1009萬元。費用率增加，銷售費用同比+76.16%，系收入增長銷售投入增加所致；管理費用+53.88%，主要系股份支付費用增加所致；研發投入+65.06%，為新產品和業務拓展打下堅實基礎，在大環境不利的背景下研發仍加大投入實屬不易。
拋開外部因素，我們對線性驅動行業仍堅定看好。貿易摩擦主要影響毛利率，料對公司銷售收入影響不大，我們認為線性驅動產品是消費升級的產物，可升降辦公桌目前在中歐、西歐、北美等區域還處於快速滲透的時期，未來三到五年能夠實現較為穩定增長；醫療康護、智能家居、光伏工業等領域同樣具有巨大發展前景，伴隨相關產品的研發儲備和市場開拓，未來有望持續快速增長。
盈利預測：
基於目前25%關税的影響，我們對盈利預測做出調整，預計19-21年歸母淨利潤2.98（+17.29%）、3.40（+14.01%）、5.03（+48.24%）億元，維持“增持”評級。
風險提示：
海外建廠進展不及預期、關税進一步加徵、匯率波動
今年上半年公司銷售收入同比增36%、歸母淨利潤同比增43%，毛利率同比基本保持不變，略超預期。我們判斷主要是由於貿易摩擦的影響在上半年未完全顯現，展望下半年及明年，我們預計2019年綜合毛利率將下滑至37.5%、2020年可能進一步下探至35.7%，隨着東南亞工廠的建設和逐步投產，2021年公司有望重回高增長軌道。
基於目前的關税影響，我們對公司的盈利預測做出調整，預計19-21年歸母淨利潤2.98（+17.29%）、3.40（+14.01%）、5.03（+48.24%）億元，今明兩年要完成股權激勵的目標還是存在難度。
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