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京東方(000725.SZ)是好的投資機會嗎?
格隆匯 08-27 09:11

關於京東方,去年之前,有很多不好聽的形容詞:比如吸血怪獸,形容京東方在資本市場鉅額融資;補貼怪獸,形容京東方每年幾十億的政府補助。這兩年以來,隨着造血能力的加強和在AMOLED技術上的領先,成了高科技民族企業的代表。且略過這些形容詞,跟初善君一起看看真實的重資產公司——京東方。 京東方資產有多重呢?截止2019年6月,京東方固定資產賬面餘額1285億元,在建工程餘額715億元,合計剛好2000億,同時京東方總資產3171億,淨資產只有1245億元,在建工程和固定資產佔總資產的比例為63%。

京東方現在的市值也只有1350億,固定資產就高達2000億了。

為什麼如此重資產呢?因為項目投資額高。

以2018年12月披露的福州第 6 代 AMOLED(柔性)生產線為例,投資額高達465億。同樣的項目公司還有三條,總投資額達到1860億元,設計月產能達192K,其中成都B7線和綿陽B11線已經量產,重慶B12線在建,福州B15線屬於剛規劃,四條產線投資額均為465億元,設計產能均為48K/月。

公司在建工程餘額715億元,三條生產線合計627億,佔比88%。

如此大的投資額,盈利多少呢?其實也沒多少。成都ALOLED投資額465億元,2019年上半年營業收入52.70億元,淨利潤只有2.09億元。

投資額巨大的原因是設備太貴了。2019年上半年京東方固定資產原值2023億元,其中設備1604億元,佔比79%。所以很明顯,錢都被設備廠商賺了。

從2019年年報來看,這是個投資巨大但是產出一般的行業,主要的錢都被上游賺了。同時看公司扣非利潤的巨大波動性,這是個強週期行業:2017年,行業景氣時扣非利潤高達67億。

京東方也知道自己的問題,所以除了鉅額投資之外,一直在轉型。從2014年開始,公司在推進顯示與傳感核心技術的基礎上大力發展端口器件(D)、智慧物聯(S)和智慧醫工(H)三大事業板塊,以創造新的利潤來源。2018年,公司將原有三個事業板塊整合細分為七個事業羣,具體如下,成效如何呢?

看上去很美,至少從財務數據上。智慧物聯實現營業收入75億元,同比增長2.38%,毛利率只有9.18%,智慧醫工6.64億營業收入,增長26%,毛利率51%,其他還有36億,看起來很厲害是不是。但是抵消高達76億元,也就是説這些業務實際上對外銷售的只有40億而已。

投資上,跟一切週期股一樣,需要把握時間節點。2016年底到2017年底一年翻了2倍,今年初一個月也將近翻倍。

如果非要看產業鏈的話,初善君認為上游才是更好的投資機會。

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