北新建材(000786.SZ)底部明確環比改善——2019年中報點評
來源:鮑大俠之建材
本報告導讀:
公司公佈2019年中報,業績環比明顯改善,業績底點確立,國際化加速,繼續維持“增持”評級。
投資要點:
維持“增持”評級。H1實現營業收入60.38億,同增0.84%;受美國官司一次性計提影響,歸母淨利-6.91億元;扣非後淨利10.98億元,同降11.61%,EPS-0.41 元。同時公佈前三季度預告,預計前三季度盈利0.35 - 0.50億元,Q3預計盈利7.26-7.41億,超出市場預期。我們維持2019-2021年EPS 0.44、1.66、1.90元,維持目標價28.22元。
Q2盈利能力明顯恢復,業績底點已現。扣除美國訴訟影響,2019H1淨利潤為11.7億,同降11.72%,降幅較Q1的33%大幅收窄。我們測算Q2均價同比略降但環比改善,Q1業績底點已經確立。我們判斷未來公司在“價本利”的戰略指引下,價格會繼續維持穩定;同時隨着中高端石膏板佔比的逐步提升,整體價格有望抬升。
毛利率環比回升。公司2019Q2毛利率為33.29%,同比下降2.87個百分點,但環比提升3.22個百分點,自2018Q2開始毛利率逐季下行趨勢正式結束。H1公司經營性淨現金流為6.88億;其中Q2為8.68億元,已經基本與同期持平,現金流狀況恢復正常水平。
解決美國官司掃除國際化最大障礙,北新成長性超預期。2019H1北新石膏板產能27億平,北新建材新一輪全球石膏板戰略規劃出爐,計劃將石膏板全球業務產能佈局擴大至50億平方米左右(其中國內至40億平方米左右、海外10億平方米左右),配套進行50萬噸龍骨產能佈局,北新的成長性有望超預期。
風險提示:原材料價格上漲,宏觀經濟下行

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