雙匯發展（000895.SZ）盈利短期承壓提價改善噸價
作者：方振 董廣陽 於芝歡
來源：華創食飲
主要觀點
事項
業績回顧：19H1業績略低預期。雙匯發佈2019年半年報，19H1公司實現營收254.55億元，同比+7.26%，歸母淨利 23.82億元，同比-0.16%，每股盈利0.72 元。單季度看，19Q2實現營收134.81億元，同比+15.50%，歸母淨利11.02億元，同比-16.58%。
評論
二季度屠宰量回落，頭均利潤維持高位。19H1屠宰業務實現營收150.39億元（對外交易/內轉分別127/23億元，同比分別+10.07%/-3.24%），豬肉價格上行帶動收入同比+7.79%。19H1公司屠宰生豬857.79萬頭，同比+3.67%，頭均利潤96元/頭，同比+62.15%，相比之下，19H1行業生豬定點屠宰量11.1億頭，同比-9.0%，公司市佔率持續提升；生鮮肉外銷量約74萬噸，同比-3.0%，豬瘟疫情致需求下滑，但單價提升11.1%至20.2元/公斤。單二季度屠宰量385萬頭，同比-11.6%，頭均利潤75元/頭，同比+26.1%，保持高位。
肉製品提價效果明顯，成本上漲致盈利承壓。19H1肉製品實現營收119.03 億，同比+4.21%，銷量同比約+1.1%，噸價約1.48萬元，同比+3.1%，噸價提升主要來自於產品提價，成本上漲拉低毛利率3.66pcts至26.33%，經營利潤率為 16.3%。其中19Q2 收入 60.4 億元，同比+4.3%，銷量同比基本持平，噸價同比+4.3%，經營利潤率16.1%，持續下行。成本上漲背景下，下半年預計公司將進一步通過提價、提升產品結構、進口豬肉及凍肉等方式對衝成本上行。
未來展望：屠宰看行業整合，肉製品關注經營改善。19 H2 預計豬價將進一步上漲，屠宰量預計仍將承壓，中長期視角，豬瘟致中小屠宰廠出清，龍頭市佔率有望進一步提升。肉製品下半年盈利仍將受制於成本上漲，但公司堅持穩“高温、上低温、中式產品工業化”戰略，持續優化產品結構，並通過提價平抑成本波動，改善盈利，肉製品業務經營改善帶來的邊際變化及彈性值得持續關注。
盈利預測、估值及投資建議
成本上漲致公司業績低預期，長期看屠宰行業加快整合趨勢不改，肉製品經營改善趨勢不變。我們下調2019-2021年EPS預測至1.50/1.55/1.71元，對應增速為0.9%/3.4%/10.2%，目前股價對應PE為15/14/13倍，下調目標價至23.25元，對應20年15X估值。下調評級至“推薦”。
風險提示
生豬價格波動；非洲豬瘟疫情超預期；肉製品轉型速度不及預期等。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
