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《大行报告》花旗:运费急升将侵蚀中石化(00386.HK)炼油利润
阿思达克 10-17 15:56

花旗发表研究报告,指自中远海能(01138.HK)全资子公司9月下旬遭美国制裁後,超大型油船(VLCC)由波斯湾至日本运费急增近3倍,由每桶原油1.8美元升至前日(15日)的近6.8美元。运费急升将侵蚀中石化(00386.HK)炼油利润。

报告称,中石化有70%至80%的VLCC租赁受市场现价运费影响。尽管实际影响取决於运费急升会持续的时间多久,该行预估,倘单季炼油毛利每桶减少3美元,中石化2020年盈利将跌5%。今年上半年中石化实现炼油毛利录每桶7.7美元。

花旗表示,以市场现价运费计,在税息前盈利层面来说,中石化炼油毛利现已陷入负值。不过,这通常有一个半至两个月的时间差,料今年12月影响将会浮面。该行引述《路透》早前报道,中石化正研究收缩每日炼油业务规模,反映不正常的高运费已侵蚀利润。报告予其「买入」投资评级,目标价6.8元。

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