中國金茂(0817.HK)：金城千里風華正茂，雙輪兩翼運營成勢，首次覆蓋給予買入評級，目標價 6.93 港元
機構：東方證券
評級：買入
目標價：6.93 港元
核心觀點
千億之上再創輝煌，城市運營鑄造核心競爭力。公司 2018 年銷售金額為 1280 億，進入千億房企序列。2014~2018 年，公司銷售金額年均複合增速 為 56.2%，同期行業增速為 18.4%。公司定位為城市運營商，秉承以城聚 人、以城促產的邏輯，依靠自身運營能力創造城市核心區，一次鎖定大量優 質土儲，並以低價拿地。公司已簽約 16 個城市運營項目，平均體量為 413 萬方，平均商住比為 1:3。目前，已經累計出讓 1748 萬方，貢獻優質宅地 1304 萬方。公司明確 2020 年城市運營將貢獻 60%的新增土儲。
持有高能級城市核心資產，租金增長行穩致遠。公司在一線和強二線城市的 核心地段持有大量優質資產，持有面積 150 萬平方米，產生租金收入 36 億 元。公司計劃到 2022 年持有面積和租金收入分別穩步增長至 200 萬平方米 和 50 億元，其中租金年均增長 8.6%。公司旗下的高端酒店和寫字樓都已形 成品牌優勢，有助於進行城市運營項目拓展和完善運營片區配套。同時，持 有大量的優質物業可以進一步強化融資優勢，公司可以靈活開展資產證券化 融資，拓寬融資渠道。
央企混改穩步推進，公司治理持續優化。金茂一直積極探索央企混改，2015 年至今已引入新華保險和平安保險等優質機構。在保持央企屬性前提下，混 改的穩步推進有利於提高公司經營活力，增加財務靈活性，協同險資旗下金 融與產業資源，促進“雙輪兩翼”戰略的有效落實。隨着混改的進行，公司 治理也在持續優化，相繼出台和落實股權激勵及跟投計劃，激發公司內部潛 能。
財務預測與投資建議
首次覆蓋給予買入評級，目標價 6.93 港元。我們預測公司 2019-2021 年每 股收益分別為 0.57/0.71/0.90 元。可比公司 2019 年平均估值為 9.5X。考慮 公司城市運營模式和融資優勢，我們給予公司 20%估值溢價，對應 2019 年 估值 11X，對應目標價 6.93 港元。
風險提示 城市運營項目拓展及落地不及預期。融資收緊超出預期。
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