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华住酒店(HTHT.US):预计短期内下行趋势明显,降至“减持“评级
格隆汇 09-19 14:11

机构:国泰君安

2019年2季度华住核心EBITDA同比降低了0.4%至人民币8.98亿元,低于我们预期4.9%。收入同比增长13.4%至人民币29亿元,符合此前指引增长区间。对于所有运营时间在18个月以上的酒店(成熟酒店),同酒店平均每间可供出租客房收入同比下降2.1%至人民币202元。净利润同比上升81.1%至人民币6.13亿元,得益于2019年第2季度股票证券公允价值变动带来的人民币1.49亿元的未实现收益,这一数据在2018年第2季度为亏损人民币2.01亿元。此项未实现收益(亏损)主要与公司在雅高酒店(ACPA)的投资有关。除去股份激励费用和来自权益证券投资公允价值变化的未实现收益(亏损),调整后净利润为人民币4.95亿元,同比降低11.3%。

我们分别下调2019年至2021年核心EBITDA预测1.3%、4.0%和14.3%。我们预计2019年至2021年公司核心EBITDA分别为人民币32亿元、人民币38亿元和人民币46亿元,对应-1.5%、19.9%和21.4%的增长率。华住对2019年第3季度净收入同比增长率的指引区间为9%至11%,低于预期。我们预计华住今年的收入增长率将放缓,主要由于宏观经济环境的疲弱表现使行业增长放缓。我们预计2019至2021年摊薄后每股美国存托凭证收益将分别达到人民币5.55元、5.90元和6.45元。

我们将目标价从33.00美元下调至32.00美元,并将投资评级从“中性”下调至“减持”。虽然我们认同华住进驻高端市场的长期战略,但短期内存在着下行风险。我们新的目标价相对我们用折现现金流方法得出的每份美国存托凭证估值(38.72美元)有17.4%的折让,相当于23.9倍预测(未来4个季度)EV/核心EBITDA。

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