新股报告：百威亚太(1876.HK)
机构：群益证券
估值
集团按2018年财政年度纯利958百万美元计算，市盈率约为46.9-52.1倍。而其同业公司中华润啤酒（291.HK）及青岛啤酒（168.HK）的市盈率分别为80.07及33.11，因此百威亚太的估值在行业中处於平均偏低的水平。
百威亚太为其母公司百威英博将其亚太地区的业务进行分拆上市。而百威英博是全球最大的啤酒制造商之一，占全球超过30%的市场份额，旗下包括多个知名的啤酒品牌，如百威、科罗娜、福佳、凯狮、哈尔滨等。
从行业来看，亚太地区是全球最大啤酒消费市场，亦是全球啤酒消费量增速最快的地区之一。2018年，亚太占全球啤酒消费量的37%，且预期2018年至2023年将贡献全球啤酒消费量增幅的47%。因此未来亚太地区啤酒行业的增长前景可期。而百威亚太的产能分布及经营市场主要为中国、澳洲、韩国、印度及越南，其中尤以中国市场为重点。而中国啤酒市场属全球最大，尽管市场规模庞大，但中国啤酒人均消费量水平计与其他基准市场（如美国、巴西及墨西哥分别为71升、60升及74升）相比，继续保持相对较低，2018年为人均35升，表明啤酒消费量存在巨大增长潜力。
而从公司自身来看，百威亚太的毛利率及净利率水平都相较於同业更高，市占率亦有一定的优势。从中国市场来看，行业集中度逐渐升高，市场前五大啤酒酿造商战市场总份额为70.4%，其中百威亚太排名第三，占比16.2%，仅次於前两位华润啤酒的23.2%及青岛啤酒的16.4%。但由於百威在中国市场的产品更加偏向於高端化的路线，若以高端及超高端产品类别的消费量来计算市场占有率，百威亚太则占比46.6%，拥有绝对优势。此外，华润啤酒及青岛啤酒的业务均主要集中於国内，而百威亚太的产能分布则更加广泛，其在跨区域产品上亦拥有更强的竞争优势。因此，我们建议认购该股。
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