碧桂园(2007.HK):土地投资重心转移,杠杆结构进一步优化,维持“买入”评级
机构:广发证券
评级:买入
核心观点:
营收规模增长稳定,销管费率小幅提升
19上半年公司实现营业收入2020.1亿人民币(下同),同比增长53.2%,归属净利润166.1亿元,同比增长28.4%。19上半年公司销售管理费用率为9.5%,同比提升1.7pct,少数股东损益占比为30.9%,同比上升10.2pct,未来随着销管费用及少数股东损益占比改善,利润率有望提升。
销售规模小幅下降,土地投资重心转移
19上半年公司实现权益销售金额2819.5亿元,同比下降9.3%,除中部地区外,其他各区域销售规模均有所下降。土地投资方面,19上半年新增权益建面3302万方,对应拿地均价3478元/平,较18年同比上升58%,主要由于公司加大了对景气度较高区域的投入,上半年公司二线城市、长三角拿地金额占比较18全年分别提升15pct、14pct。
财务状况稳健,杠杆结构优化
截至19年6月30日,公司有息负债为3318.9亿元,较18年末增长1.0%,净负债率58.5%,较18年末上升9.0pct,整体资金状况安全,财务稳健。杠杆乘数方面,截至19年6月公司权益乘数为13.35x,较18年末下降0.08x,其中财务杠杆下降0.17x,经营杠杆提升0.09x,在杠杆倍数基本稳定的情况下杠杆结构进一步优化。
预计19-20年动态PE分别为4.8x、4.1x
预计19-20年归母净利润分别为418/489亿人民币,对应19-20年动态PE分别为4.8x、4.1x,因此维持前期合理价值16.03港元/股,对应合理估值7.5x,维持“买入”评级。

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