星展料物管市场规模15年内倍增 上市公司未来2-3年盈利增长达30%
星展银行(香港)研究部中国房地产业分析主管王丹在记者会上表示,内地基本物业管理市场规模料在15年内倍增,在科技支持下,增值服务增长空间蓬勃,料未来可有高盈利。选股方面,建议专注於有最高盈利能见度及有增长潜力的股票。
王氏又指,2018年100大物业管理公司以管理费计算,住宅物业收入占45%,商业物业占14%,但以管理面积计算,住宅物业占约75%,她表示,由於医院、办公楼等物业可收取的管理费较高,料物业管理公司会很愿意增加此部份的比例。
王丹表示,内地物业管理行业盈利增长超过5%,上市公司至2021年增长料达30%。分拆物业管理公司独立上市方面,该行料公司需有超过2,000万合约面积、逾1,000万在管面积及於2018年盈利逾5,000万港元的公司才可吸引投资者。
此外,除了规模大,该行认为业务特别、有地域优势(如专注於大湾区或长三角地区等),以及叫价合理(行内市盈率介乎10-30多倍,平均市盈率22-23倍)的公司才可吸引投资者。王丹预期,上市内房中,有兴趣短期内分拆旗下物业管理公司上市的包括润地(01109.HK)、世房(00813.HK)、建业地产(00832.HK)及富力(02777.HK)等。
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