中国财险 (2328.HK)：寡头地位+政府资源，低估的中国“核心资产“，上调至“买入”评级，目标价12.3港元
机构：中信证券
来源：买入
目标价：12.3港元
拓展过程中进行过三次转型，从小市场做到大市场，从高风险客户做到低风险客户。1937年公司成立，主营针对蓝领工人的车险业务，借助二战红利迅速发展；1956年公司进入非标准市场，把目标客户锁定为高风险群体，在这一低竞争市场培养了自己的风险定价能力，建设了独立代理人网络；1993年公司进入标准市场，凭借着定价能力和对电销、网销的全力投入迅速扩张；2009年公司开始用多元化产品组合来吸引、留住优质客户。
▍前进保险的成功来自于稳定的公司治理和持续进化的定价、渠道能力。前进保险管理层长期稳定且多为内部提拔，历任高管始终坚持承保利润优先、重视技术创新的战略定位。风险定价能力是前进保险在非标准市场的核心能力，也是公司进入标准市场后的重要优势，而这一能力的培养主要依靠大量的数据收集和分析。前进保险是美国独立代理人渠道最大的保险公司，在进入标准市场后大力打造品牌发展直销，并妥善解决了代理人和直销之间的利益冲突。
▍中国财险盈利能力与前进保险类似，但估值远低于前进保险。中国财险过去5年平均ROE为17.3%，在全球市值前十财险公司中仅次于前进保险；过去5年平均承保利润率为2.7%，行业领先。但是公司过去5年平均PB只有1.54倍，而前进保险平均则高达2.9倍，中国财险估值被显著低估。低估主要源于公司治理、车险费改、利率下行等因素导致的ROE下降。
▍中国财险寡头地位稳固，主要非车险资源优势显著，是被低估的中国“核心资产”。与前进保险相比，中国财险目前ROE水平具有可持续性：我们预计未来十年中国汽车保有量仍有翻倍空间，公司为中国财险第一品牌、渠道和县域优势显著，公司凭借先发优势已经形成车险寡头地位，连续五年市场份额稳定在34%左右；非车险方面中国市场刚刚起步，主要依靠政府推动，中国财险拥有独特的地方政府资源，责任险、农险、意健险有望迎来高增长。预计公司未来三年平均14%左右ROE水平，对应合理估值应为2019年1.5倍PB，未来一年目标价为12.3港元/股，上调至“买入”评级。
▍风险因素：利率中长期下行、车险费率市场化改革、巨灾损失、自动驾驶等新技术。
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