万洲国际(0288.HK)：全球猪价呈现上涨态势，万洲国际迎来机遇，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级，目标价8.47港元
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
目标价：8.47港元
核心观点：
受益于中国猪价上涨，全球猪价呈现上涨态势,有利于 Smithfield 的 盈利改善;贸易量变化有望带来利润增长
非洲猪瘟爆发以来，能繁母猪存栏量持续下降，猪肉供给会减少导致中 国猪价上涨，全球猪价呈现上涨态势，有利于 Smithfield 的盈利改善;中美 贸易谈判存在不确定性，贸易量变化可视为公司业绩的弹性部分。
国内屠宰集中度有望提高，双汇发展作为行业龙头将首先获益
随着屠宰行业监管趋严，门槛提高，屠宰行业的落后产能将加速淘汰， 行业集中度稳步提升。双汇发展作为屠宰行业龙头在短期内将首先获取规 模效应带来的收益。 双汇发展通过增加库存、提高产品价格、调整产品结 构、拓宽营销渠道来促进产品销售，改善盈利。截止 2019 年 8 月，公司已 经对部分产品实行小幅提价来应对猪价上涨；库存增加有望部分降低猪价 上涨带来的成本增加，预计双汇发展肉制品业务将保持平稳增长。
预计 2019-2021 年业绩分别为 0.07、0.09 和 0.10 美元/股
预计猪价将上行带动公司养殖业务和出口业务收入，公司肉制品结构 调整和屠宰行业集中度提升有望为公司收入贡献增长。我们预计公司 2019、2020 和 2021 年的 EPS 为 0.07、0.09 和 0.10 美元每股，当前价格 对应 2019-2021 年 PE 倍数为 11.87、9.53 和 8.87 倍。考虑未来两年盈利 能力增强，给予 2020 年 12 倍 PE，对应合理价值为 8.47HKD/股,首次覆盖 给予“买入”评级。
风险提示 1、美国生猪出栏大幅低于预期 2、猪价快速上涨，肉制品和 屠宰销量宰业务利润受到挤压 3、肉制品及新鲜肉销量低于预期。
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