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新天绿色能源(956.HK):预计未来天然气板块盈利占比将逐步提升,维持买入评级,目标价 3.18 港元
格隆汇 09-11 08:48

机构:国元证券

评级:买入

目标价:3.18 港元

投资要点

 2019 年中期业绩稳步增长,天然气板块盈利升幅显著:

2019 年上半年公司实现收入人民币(下同)63.6 亿元,同比增长 31.5%; 实现归属于公司拥有人净利润 9.68 亿元,同比增长 17.7%;每股盈利 0.2520 元。公司收入构成中,天然气业务收入 42.5 亿元,同比增长 41.9%,占比 66.9%;风电及光伏业务实现收入 21.0 亿元,同比增长 14.3%,占比 33.1%。 上半年公司天然气板块实现税后利润 3.45 亿元,同比增长 106.3%。

 预计未来天然气板块盈利占比将逐步提升:

考虑到去年天然气销量高基数影响,预计公司 2019 年天然气销气量同比增 长约 20%至 31-32 亿立方米。 2019 年上半年天然气板块税后利润占比达 28%, 较去年同期提升 11 个百分点,预计公司未来 2-3 年将加大天然气板块的投 资,稳步提升该板块盈利占比,长期来看占比或将升至 50%左右。

 预计 2019 年风电新增装机 400-500MW:

截至 2019 年 6 月底,公司风电累计控股装机容量 3977.55MW,上半年新增 装机 119.4MW,累计核准未开工容量 2487.6MW,预计全年新增装机 400-500MW。上半年公司风电利用小时数 1376 小时,较去年同期增加 18 小 时,高于全国平均可利用小时数 243 小时;期内弃风率为 5.64%,同比下降 0.79 个百分点,预计公司全年风电利用小时数约 2300-2350 小时。

 维持目标价 3.18 港元,买入评级:

公司目前股价对应 2019 年 PE 和 PB 分别为 4.8 倍和 0.6 倍,股息率约 6.3%。 估值优势明显,安全边际高。我们看好公司 A 股发行后,未来流通性的改善 及估值的提升,维持公司目标价 3.18 港元,相当于 2019 年 7.2 倍 PE 和 0.9 倍 PB ,目标价较现价有 50%的升幅,维持买入评级。

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