洛阳钼业(03993.HK):2019年中期业绩差于预期,维持“中性“评级,目标价2.35港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:中性
目标价:2.35港元
公司2019年中期业绩差于市场一致预期和我们的估计。公司收入同比减少29.03%至人民币99.8亿元,股东净利同比暴跌74.12%至人民币8.08亿元。净利润的显著下跌主要归因于更低的钴价和钨价。
下调钴价和钨价假设,但维持其它金属价格假设不变。我们维持钼价假设不变,但由于钨需求疲弱下调钨价假设。我们预计全球铜市场在2019年将保持稳定,年度铜均价将在6,100-6,700美元/吨之间波动。随着市场达到新的平衡,我们将年度钴均价假设下调至32,000-35,000美元/吨。
维持公司矿产品产量假设不变。公司计划在2019年生产1.45-1.60万吨等量金属的钼精矿,0.9-1.0万吨等量金属的钨精矿,Northparke生产3.0-3.2万吨矿产铜,Tenke生产17.0-20.0万吨矿产铜和1.65-1.90万吨矿产钴。公司的生产稳定,我们维持公司矿产品产量假设不变。
下调公司目标价至2.35港元,维持维持“中性”评级。

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