安踏体育用品有限公司(02020.HK) ：销售再超预期，多品牌战略再告捷，维持“买入”评级，目标价73.5港元
机构：申万宏源
评级：买入
目标价：73.5港元
安踏体育发布19年上半年业绩，其中收入148亿元，同比增长40.3%，利润25.8亿元，同比增长29%，EPS每股0.925，同比增长27.7%。基于较好的销售前景，我们上调19至21年盈利预测至RMB1.94/2.46/2.96，对应增速分别为26.8%/26.8%/20.3%。我们上调目标价至HK$73.5（原目标价HK$61.7），对应现价有20%的涨幅。我们维持买入评级。
销售增长强劲。Fila在1H19的表现亮眼，尽管去年基数较高，仍实现79.9%的销售增长。其中主品牌增速约60%，kids80%，fusion达到3000%。至1H19年fila店数增加至1788家，环比增长8.2%，店效不断提升。安踏主品牌上半年的销售增长强劲，主要由于产品更新(如可口可乐、KT4系列)和门店升级，销量增长18.3%。安踏门店数量小幅增加至10223家，同比增长1.7%。我们注意到其他品牌也表现良好，例如Descente开始贡献利润。
成本暂降。公司上半年实现营业利润42.6亿元人民币，同比增长58.4%。主要归功于公司对广告费用的良好控制，广告费用占比从去年同期的11.7%下降至19年上半年的10%。随着公司恢复对主品牌的营销（如NBA球星KlayThompson的中国行），广告费率将在下半年回弹至11%的水平。
IFRS16影响有限。公司约有10亿的折旧摊销与租赁资产会计准则变更有关。由于Fila和其他零售品牌采用商场扣点的经销模式，此类其店铺不会被新准则视作资产而计入资产负债表。因此仅有街边店铺的会计处理会计准则变化影响，但该部分对公司的利润影响有限。
大力推广。Amersports在1H19实现并表（记投资收益或亏损），总投资损失约5亿元人民币。随着公司计划加快Amersports旗下部分品牌在中国大陆的扩张，我们预计19年下半年扩张带来的收益将会弥补合并购的亏损。
维持买入评级。我们相信门店数量和店效的增加将继续带来Fila下半年的销售增长，预计2019年全年销售增长将保持在50%。我们相信Descente的良好表现是公司优秀的品牌经营能力的有力体现，公司多品牌战略将会迎来成功。我们上调19至21年盈利预测至RMB1.94/2.46/2.96，对应增速分别为26.8%/26.8%/20.3%。我们上调目标价至HK$73.5（原目标价HK$61.7），对应现价有20%的涨幅。我们维持买入评级。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
