呷哺呷哺 ( 00520.HK) ：调整后净利润略逊预期，凑凑表现超预期，维持“买入”评级，目标价12.7港币
机构：申万宏源
评级：买入
目标价：12.7港币
呷哺呷哺19年上半年收入同比增长27.4％至人民币27亿元，高于我们的预期，主要由于湊湊的收入超预期。净利润同比下滑22.5％至1.62亿元;国际财务报告准则第16号的实施导致净利润减少4300万元，不考虑会计调整的影响及IPO前股份奖励计划相关的开支，调整后净利润同比减少2.0％至2.1亿元，略低于我们的预期，主要因为员工成本高于预期。我们将19年稀释每股盈利预测从0.49元略微下调至0.48元（同比增长11.8％），维持20年稀释每股盈利预测0.56元（同比增长16.6％），维持21年稀释每股盈利预测0.64元（同比增长14.6％）。目标价从12.8港币略微下调至12.7港币，对应21.0％的上涨空间，维持买入建议。
门店扩张潜力。上半年公司新开76家的呷哺呷哺店（由于商业原因关闭了7家）和13家湊湊店，呷哺呷哺和湊湊的总门店数量分别达到955家和61家。管理层预计未来三年每年新开200家呷哺呷哺和湊湊门店。管理层在业绩会上称，根据聘请的顾问公司做的市场调研，按照人口数量计算，呷哺在内地的开店空间有5000多家，而按照商圈数量计算，空间有6000多家。湊湊的开店空间有1000多家。
呷哺品牌的同店下滑符合我们的预期。上半年呷哺品牌的同店销售同比下滑1.9％，跌幅较18年下半年的3％有所收窄。我们预计同店销售增速将在19年下半年转正，19全年预计为低单位数。同店增长将主来自门店升级带来的产品结构调整（截至19年中超过700家门店是2.0升级门店），茶饮的更多贡献，以及外卖业务的贡献（截至19年中73个城市的597家门店有外卖业务）。
湊湊的表现超预期。湊湊的收入同比增长150％至4.9亿元，贡献公司总收入的17％，超出我们的预期。餐饮层面营业利润率提升2个百分点至14％，高于我们的预期。管理层在业绩会上提到湊湊在19年上半年录得高双位数的同店销售增长率，湊湊的毛利率比呷哺呷哺高出3％。
利润压力。上半年，原材料成本得到良好控制，毛利率上涨0.4个百分点至63.3％。员工成本占收入的比例增加1.2个百分点至26.5％。租金成本占收入的比例（不包括IFRS16号会计准则调整的影响）也有所增加。净利润率（不包括IFRS16号会计准则调整的影响）下降2.3个百分点至7.6％。
维持买入。我们长期看好公司的门店扩张潜力，管理团队的创新能力，和湊湊的发展潜力。目标价从12.8港币略微下调至12.7港币，对应21.0％的上涨空间，维持买入建议。
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